Poll: Romney advantage in Florida
October 12th, 2012
10:07 AM ET
10 years ago

Poll: Romney advantage in Florida

(CNN) – A new poll of likely voters in Florida released Thursday indicates Republican nominee Mitt Romney has an edge over President Barack Obama in the state.

The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll shows Romney up seven percentage points with 51% of likely Florida voters' support to Obama's 44%. Romney's advantage is within the poll's sampling error. The same survey conducted one month ago showed a much tighter race between the candidates in the Sunshine State with Obama up 48% to Romney's 47%.

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The Florida survey was conducted entirely after the first presidential debate, following what was largely considered an unenthusiastic showing from the president. The Romney campaign capitalized on the GOP candidate's lauded performance while the president conceded Thursday that he had a "bad night" last week in Denver.

According to a CNN/ORC International survey conducted right after the debate, 67% of debate watchers questioned said that the Republican nominee won the contest, with one in four saying that President Barack Obama was victorious. National polls released in the days following the debate continued to indicate Romney received a post-debate bounce.

"There's no question in my mind that debate made people stand up and pay attention, and it really wiped away any questions people had about Romney, whether they were undecided or soft for Obama," Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research told the Tampa Bay Times.

An NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, however, released hours before Thursday's vice presidential debate indicated the candidates are in a dead heat among likely Florida voters with Obama at 48% and Romney at 47%. Obama had 47% and Romney had 46% in their poll from early last week.

Senior Obama adviser David Plouffe pushed back on the Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll's findings, telling the Times that the survey "is just not rooted in reality."

"We got 57 percent of the Latino vote, according to exit (polls) last time. We think we'll probably push 60 or above this time," Plouffe said Thursday. The campaign believes the president has an edge over Romney by a point or two and a floor support in the state of 47%.

Last month, polls showed Obama slightly ahead over Romney.

The latest CNN Poll of Polls - which is an average of six Florida polls of likely voters conducted over the past week two weeks - taken September 16-30 shows Obama with an advantage in the state, 50% to Romney's 45%.

The Times poll showed Romney ahead of Obama on a host of issues; including who likely voters believe would help improve the economy, protect Medicare – a boon for the state's large senior citizen population – and who is better looking out for the middle-class.

The battleground state holds a highly-contested 29 electoral votes and is considered a "toss up" on CNN's Electoral Map.

The president attended a campaign rally in Coral Gables, Florida Thursday before Vice President Joe Biden took the stage with Republican running mate Paul Ryan in Danville, Kentucky for the only vice presidential debate.

Shortly after the debate, Obama congratulated the vice president on what the campaign viewed as a stellar performance telling reporters in Washington that he "couldn't be prouder" of Biden. A CNN/ORC poll, nationwide poll conducted right after Thursday night's faceoff, showed debate watchers split over the winner of the match-up. Forty-eight percent of voters who watched the debate thought Ryan was victorious while 44% said Biden won. The Republican running mate's four point advantage among a debate audience that was more Republican than the country as a whole is within the survey's sampling error.

Though vice presidential debates are unlikely to tip the scales Thursday's survey in Florida as well as national polls suggest Romney's performance had an effect on voters.

The presidential contenders will square off for the second time in New York on October 16 in a debate moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley.

The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald survey consisted of 800 telephone interviews of likely Florida voters and was conducted from October 8-10 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for the Times and its media partners. The poll's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.

Filed under: 2012 • Florida • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (324 Responses)
  1. drewd13

    SurRy, you do realize that ohio is even?

    October 12, 2012 02:32 pm at 2:32 pm |
  2. n

    The dummying down of America is more prevalently seen on the right then ever before. These so called right wing conservative people seem to be oblivious to what's going on and cling to familiar faces when they are overcome with fear of extinction because of the inevitable evolution of change that effect their antiquated way of life. Even though the black guy has their best interest at best, I think it's a practiced racial bias that is imbedded in their core that causes them to hold on to their captors deceitful hands as they are willfully lead to be slaughtered. To be real, those jobs are gone forever, they are not coming back and why would the job creators hire more people when they are making a fortune with what little employees and technology they have now. What do you think?

    October 12, 2012 02:32 pm at 2:32 pm |
  3. DJ

    Glad to see Romney leading in crusial state like Florida. After witnessing Obama's sidekick looking, and acting like a grining baboon in the VP debate only reaffirms anyone with common sense will not to vote for the Obama/Biden ticket.

    October 12, 2012 02:36 pm at 2:36 pm |
  4. eyeRollz

    So poor congressman Ryan came expecting a gentlemen's back and forth discussion and was "attacked" by VP Biden and it's a terrible thing. President Obama came to the debate expecting a gentlemen's back and forth discussion and was attacked by Romney and it's a wonderful thing. You can't have it both ways people.

    October 12, 2012 02:39 pm at 2:39 pm |
  5. Brad

    Also, just so VP Biden knows, J.F.K. did advocate the EXACT tax/economic plan that Romney/Ryan are advocating. Go back and listen to his speeches in 1962 and you will see this Joe! Romney/Ryan may win in a landslide the way this is all going!

    October 12, 2012 02:45 pm at 2:45 pm |
  6. darknesscrown

    I simply cannot comprehend why anyone would want to vote for Mitt Romney. Are you masochists? Do you like pain?

    October 12, 2012 02:45 pm at 2:45 pm |
  7. Jason


    I find it interesting overnight just a few blocks I must drive thru to get to my home (these are blocks of straight up middle/lower class), just overnight the Ryan/Romney signs have sprung up on nearly every lawn. Nearly EVERY one. This is a lovely long line of middle class houses. Block after block. They were NOT there yesterday. Guess a lot of folks made up their mind after last night's debate.


    Ok, so your neighborhood speaks for the WHOLE COUNTRY. See people like u are so small minded and silly. Until you been to every neighborhood in this country, what you said makes no sense. 1 fricking neighborhood, Clueless right winger!!

    October 12, 2012 02:50 pm at 2:50 pm |
  8. betterdays

    Everything's better, the economy is fixed, Iran is not a threat, Medicare and Social Security are fine, people are working great full-time jobs, Al Qaeda is helpless, YouTube videos cause terror attacks, wars can be ended by declaring it so, the deficit is no big deal, major cities all over the rust belt aren't becoming huge ghettoes, and anything that's actually not totally groovy is the fault of successful people - unless they are actors, athletes, entertainers, minorities or Democrat politicians, all of whom are exempt from criticism. In fact a combination of all of these is what we're running as a presidential candidate again this year.

    Sincerely, Your Typical Democrat.

    October 12, 2012 02:50 pm at 2:50 pm |
  9. fryuujin

    from the dolts who gave us Bush for 2 terms and 2 wars costing 1000s of lives and Trillions of dollars and the group that put us in a near depression and we're to think that they know who should be president. Come on, be real the people who vote GOP should be in prison for treason.

    October 12, 2012 02:53 pm at 2:53 pm |
  10. Yang

    I just don't think Romney was strong in the debate at all. Obama was freaking asleep and did poorly, no doubt, but that has no bearing on Romney's individual performance. It's like winning by default.

    October 12, 2012 02:53 pm at 2:53 pm |
  11. Flyboy7588

    If you voted for Obama in 2008 to prove to yourself that you are not a racist, vote for Romney in 2012 to prove you are not an IDIOT!!!!!!

    October 12, 2012 02:54 pm at 2:54 pm |
  12. Sonia

    It is interesting to see that only CNN's poll showed Ryan won the debate and after few hours CNN said that
    There is a mixed results. Because all other networks came up Biden as a winner. Now. CNN the only saying Romney has an advantage. But the truth of the matter is most of the polls taken by CNN just ask the question without knowing which party they belong and the majority of them are republicans. They will e stunned when Obama wins the election with a landslide victory which has never been seen in US history.

    October 12, 2012 02:56 pm at 2:56 pm |
  13. Lost

    No more war, please! No more PTSD!

    October 12, 2012 02:56 pm at 2:56 pm |
  14. sheepguts68

    So happy to hear that Florida is leaning Romney, if you guys could just get Ohio this would be in the bag already.

    October 12, 2012 02:56 pm at 2:56 pm |
  15. A

    Would you guys seriously vote fora vp that want to chance the define of rape.

    October 12, 2012 02:57 pm at 2:57 pm |
  16. dzerres

    What? I thought Republicans were saying the polls were all rigged? Why not this one too? I can't believer was a swing of 8 percentage points in a week. It doesn't matter anyway – Obama doesn't need Florida – would be nice but not necessary – and maybe the old folks will wake up before Nov 6th and understand that the GOP wants to eliminate Social Security and Medicare.

    October 12, 2012 02:58 pm at 2:58 pm |
  17. Nicko

    Must be that spray tan he used during a stump speech in Florida to get 10 more Latino votes. Pathetic

    October 12, 2012 02:58 pm at 2:58 pm |
  18. Greg

    If Romney wins Americans will prove that democracy can be purchased.

    October 12, 2012 02:58 pm at 2:58 pm |
  19. nolalou

    Joe Biden's best comeback to the Ryan/Romney ticket was one word that sums it up! Malarkey!

    October 12, 2012 03:00 pm at 3:00 pm |
  20. ronjayaz

    If want to know what Rmoney ("our money") really believes see THE 10 CRAZIEST MORMON BELIEFS.

    October 12, 2012 03:00 pm at 3:00 pm |
  21. Dori

    As a senior citizen and if I lived in FL, I most definitely would be running as far away from Mitt Romney as possible. I hope you seniors in FL will vote the Democratic ticket if you want to keep your benefits. Romney/Ryan are out to take them all away (listen to the video re the 47% – that is how he truly believes so please wake up).

    October 12, 2012 03:02 pm at 3:02 pm |
  22. EJ

    very disappointing to see so many brainwashed and blinded people. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are literally planning to make slaves of you if they are elected. This is why they refuse to give you specifics about their so-called 5-point plan.

    October 12, 2012 03:02 pm at 3:02 pm |
  23. lardoggy

    I like pain,it brings reward.

    October 12, 2012 03:02 pm at 3:02 pm |
  24. FLIndependent

    @Ralph – there is one thing that will make the economy grow quicker and that is cooperation from Congress. You know this so why blame it on the President. If the jerks like Ryan who has been part of the PROBLEM, not the solution would get off their high horses and work for us instead of themselves then we would be much further along. Romney is NOT going to help us in any way. The man has been running for president for years even when the economy/jobs were better so what is his motive???

    October 12, 2012 03:02 pm at 3:02 pm |
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