Poll: Romney advantage in Florida
October 12th, 2012
10:07 AM ET
9 years ago

Poll: Romney advantage in Florida

(CNN) – A new poll of likely voters in Florida released Thursday indicates Republican nominee Mitt Romney has an edge over President Barack Obama in the state.

The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll shows Romney up seven percentage points with 51% of likely Florida voters' support to Obama's 44%. Romney's advantage is within the poll's sampling error. The same survey conducted one month ago showed a much tighter race between the candidates in the Sunshine State with Obama up 48% to Romney's 47%.

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The Florida survey was conducted entirely after the first presidential debate, following what was largely considered an unenthusiastic showing from the president. The Romney campaign capitalized on the GOP candidate's lauded performance while the president conceded Thursday that he had a "bad night" last week in Denver.

According to a CNN/ORC International survey conducted right after the debate, 67% of debate watchers questioned said that the Republican nominee won the contest, with one in four saying that President Barack Obama was victorious. National polls released in the days following the debate continued to indicate Romney received a post-debate bounce.

"There's no question in my mind that debate made people stand up and pay attention, and it really wiped away any questions people had about Romney, whether they were undecided or soft for Obama," Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research told the Tampa Bay Times.

An NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, however, released hours before Thursday's vice presidential debate indicated the candidates are in a dead heat among likely Florida voters with Obama at 48% and Romney at 47%. Obama had 47% and Romney had 46% in their poll from early last week.

Senior Obama adviser David Plouffe pushed back on the Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald poll's findings, telling the Times that the survey "is just not rooted in reality."

"We got 57 percent of the Latino vote, according to exit (polls) last time. We think we'll probably push 60 or above this time," Plouffe said Thursday. The campaign believes the president has an edge over Romney by a point or two and a floor support in the state of 47%.

Last month, polls showed Obama slightly ahead over Romney.

The latest CNN Poll of Polls - which is an average of six Florida polls of likely voters conducted over the past week two weeks - taken September 16-30 shows Obama with an advantage in the state, 50% to Romney's 45%.

The Times poll showed Romney ahead of Obama on a host of issues; including who likely voters believe would help improve the economy, protect Medicare – a boon for the state's large senior citizen population – and who is better looking out for the middle-class.

The battleground state holds a highly-contested 29 electoral votes and is considered a "toss up" on CNN's Electoral Map.

The president attended a campaign rally in Coral Gables, Florida Thursday before Vice President Joe Biden took the stage with Republican running mate Paul Ryan in Danville, Kentucky for the only vice presidential debate.

Shortly after the debate, Obama congratulated the vice president on what the campaign viewed as a stellar performance telling reporters in Washington that he "couldn't be prouder" of Biden. A CNN/ORC poll, nationwide poll conducted right after Thursday night's faceoff, showed debate watchers split over the winner of the match-up. Forty-eight percent of voters who watched the debate thought Ryan was victorious while 44% said Biden won. The Republican running mate's four point advantage among a debate audience that was more Republican than the country as a whole is within the survey's sampling error.

Though vice presidential debates are unlikely to tip the scales Thursday's survey in Florida as well as national polls suggest Romney's performance had an effect on voters.

The presidential contenders will square off for the second time in New York on October 16 in a debate moderated by CNN's Candy Crowley.

The Tampa Bay Times/Bay News 9/Miami Herald survey consisted of 800 telephone interviews of likely Florida voters and was conducted from October 8-10 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for the Times and its media partners. The poll's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.

Filed under: 2012 • Florida • Mitt Romney • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (324 Responses)
  1. J. Davis in Knoxville, TN

    All those seniors in Florida better wise up and listen to what VP Biden said last night. It you like your Social Security and Medicare benefits to continue as they are now, you need to vote for Obama/Biden who will ENSURE that SS and Medicare will stay sound. This voucher stuff proposed by Romney/Ryan is very dangerous–they are so rich do you think they care about seniors? I sincerely doubt it.
    Thanks Mr. Biden for a wonderful performance last night.

    October 12, 2012 12:28 pm at 12:28 pm |
  2. GeorgiaNoles

    I think the answer is clear. Romeny and Ryan = a modesty recovery, while obama and Joe Dirt = my failed policies and economic collapse. This is a defining election, thus is why R/R win in a landslide. The writing is on the wall...Romney will be a great President..a True leader! that is what we need....

    October 12, 2012 12:28 pm at 12:28 pm |
  3. CanadaONE

    TRAVEL ALERT to Canadians

    Notice to the millions of Canadians who travel to Florida. If the GOP win BEWARE of possible
    major foreign attacks on the USA. It maybe much wiser to pick another country to retire and/or vaction in.

    Please check with the Canadian Embassy in Ottawa on which countries are safe to travel to.

    October 12, 2012 12:28 pm at 12:28 pm |
  4. works4me

    Ryan did what he,s been programmed to Do for the last few weeks. numbers just keep repeating the numbers. He has no idea how they got to those numbers and looked just like a robot repeating... repeating. Biden speaks from experience and education about the subjects. He also speaks more from the heart.

    October 12, 2012 12:29 pm at 12:29 pm |
  5. bill

    The GOP have NO PLAN apart from trickle down economics, privatization and vouchers. Their "savings" proposal is based upon an arbitrary estimate of what they would HOPE to achieve, which would entail severely cutting the programs of the people they need the most for their votes. America has suffered enough from the GOP dubya era of the Great Recession and we don't need a return to the same policies that got us here in the first place.

    October 12, 2012 12:29 pm at 12:29 pm |
  6. Faith Minglana

    That was the real Joe Biden last night. He talked LOUD but no substance. So it makes people who are stupid think that he's doing a great job.

    October 12, 2012 12:29 pm at 12:29 pm |
  7. robert

    come on florida... don't screw this up for the country like how you did it with bush. All your doing is putting some much worse in the house then bush. I love you guys. your state has good OJ, Disney world, Tampa bay lightning , Tampa bay buccaneers. Please don't let evil mitten in the house give bush admin another 3 term... and a world war ....

    October 12, 2012 12:30 pm at 12:30 pm |
  8. JD

    Laughable is when Joe Biden wags his finger at Paul Ryan in regards to two "un-funded" wars. I'm pretty sure senators Biden and Clinton voted for force in Iraq. Bill Clinton stated his belief in WMDs.

    It's why democrats do well amongst the young. Just tell the story and point fingers. How can a 23 year old remember their political beliefs at 13. They wouldn't even know what Enron, worldcomm, author Anderson, tech bubble were to debunk the type of economy in 2000 myth being sold. Compare the Nasdaq from jan 2000 to jan 2001 when bush took office.

    October 12, 2012 12:30 pm at 12:30 pm |
  9. Marie MD

    Seniors need someone to remind them of those pesky vouchers which will lead to an early death for most of them as insurance companies will have them going from one insurance company to another for medical service.
    Case in point, in MD, co worker whose mother is on social security and Medicare. He is undecided but he tells me that his mother who is retired is now paying $80 for a three month supply of needed medicine that she used to pay $300 for before Obamacare.
    See how stupid people are? Duh!

    October 12, 2012 12:30 pm at 12:30 pm |
  10. Anonymous

    The character of person is the most important factor for a person who can represent our country and us. If someone cares nothing but his own pocket, tries everything to pay less tax, to contribute as little as possible to the country. He will bring us to meaningless wars for the benefits of his own private equity holdings. If that happened, it will be disasters for the country and average people.

    October 12, 2012 12:30 pm at 12:30 pm |
  11. Badboy

    If you have no ideas, and a failed record, then you have to bash the other guy. Good luck with that, OblameO! You libtards need to stop crying and realize you elected an empty suit (empty chair) who has no ideas and is in way over his head! I cant say McCain would have done better but I can say that he couldn't have done any worse than the idiot who now OCCUPYS the White House!

    October 12, 2012 12:31 pm at 12:31 pm |
  12. steveL

    One thing for sure Congressman Ryan sure is thirsty,this dude drunk a ton of water during the debate. Just a thought, Ryan did not lose the debate,he held his own against a formidable opponent,the Vice President has always been able to debate with the best of them(He had to go head to toe with a female pitbull-Palin) but both had good points on the issue. It was a tie in my opinion.

    October 12, 2012 12:31 pm at 12:31 pm |
  13. jim

    I don't know what poll they talking about. I live in Florida and the feeling in the air is not Romeny.

    October 12, 2012 12:31 pm at 12:31 pm |
  14. Faith Minglana

    Obama lost the first debate. Joe Biden lost last night's debate. The Obama administration lied about Libya. The economy still stink. The Obama-Biden campaign is going down.

    October 12, 2012 12:32 pm at 12:32 pm |
  15. Mauri

    It's always amusing to watch politicians whose intelligent elevator doesn't quite make it to the top floor.Even with obvious ADHD or bipolar symptoms, there are those who can and do describe them in a way positive to their beliefs. To that, I say "malarkey."

    October 12, 2012 12:32 pm at 12:32 pm |
  16. Critical Thinker

    So, Seniors in Florida want vouchers to replace their Medicare? And, Seniors want to send their kids and grandkids overseas to fight Mitt's wars?

    October 12, 2012 12:33 pm at 12:33 pm |
  17. Lionel

    Biden was terrific. Ryan did not answer the questions. Seniors will see how the Republicans will gut Medicare.

    Obama / Biden 2012

    October 12, 2012 12:33 pm at 12:33 pm |
  18. gregor1971

    Romney eviscerated Obama in a gentlemanly way, whereas Biden was just a clown, laughing and smiling as Ryan spoke about Americans being killed in Libya. Biden even had the audacity to lie about the Libya attacks,saying that no requests for extra security were made, even though the State Departments is saying exactly the opposite. Nobody, I mean nobody, wants Biden anywhere close to the White House

    October 12, 2012 12:34 pm at 12:34 pm |
  19. bonni

    CNN, the new fox lite.
    Salivating over 1 scientifically suspect poll that shows the President losing, they ignore their own CNN poll of polls showing him ahead by 5 points. On top of yesterday's headline "Romney is Not a Liar" I'm looking for the Limbaugh byline.

    October 12, 2012 12:35 pm at 12:35 pm |

    I hope the seniors in FL elect Romney so they can be put on a Medicare voucher system. They'll be standing in line with their "coupons" for healthcare. lol The only problem – the insurance companies will double their premiums.

    October 12, 2012 12:35 pm at 12:35 pm |
  21. gregor1971

    Obama and his PACs have pulled out of Florida already. They have also started spending significantly less in Virginia. It looks like their internals are telling them at Florida and Virginia are going red. Same with Colorado.

    October 12, 2012 12:36 pm at 12:36 pm |
  22. Melissa

    I can't believe that the American people would elect such a poor candidate for president as Mitt Romney. Are some of us really as shallow as what the Republicans think we are? It boggles my mind when ii see, especially young people repeating the same phases over and over again whithout a thought to what a Romney presidency would be. None of it makes any sense. Obama is clearly better qualified to be president.

    October 12, 2012 12:36 pm at 12:36 pm |
  23. John

    Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are so full of BS , I can't believe any one would vote for these two Lying fool. If you vote for Mitt Romney you will be a lot sorry later.

    October 12, 2012 12:38 pm at 12:38 pm |
  24. Dee

    Kurt, I hope you are middle class. So you can see just how quickly you will eat those words if Romney/Ryan wins this election.

    October 12, 2012 12:38 pm at 12:38 pm |
  25. John Cram


    If Romney wins and "repeals" ObamaCare, then puts all of the parts back in (as he said he is going to do) will it still be called ObamaCare or RomneyCare?

    Only a Republican can say " I'm going to vote for the guy who will give me all these good things that the other guy ALREADY did (while I bashed him for it the entire time)"

    Think about it for just 1 minute.

    October 12, 2012 12:39 pm at 12:39 pm |
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