Poll: Obama 50%-Romney 45% in Ohio
October 22nd, 2012
10:43 AM ET
10 years ago

Poll: Obama 50%-Romney 45% in Ohio

Boca Raton, Florida (CNN) - As President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney get ready to face off in their final debate, a new poll in the crucial battleground state of Ohio indicates a close contest in the race for the Buckeye State's 18 electoral votes.

According to a Quinnipiac University/CBS News survey released Monday morning, 50% of likely voters in Ohio say they support the president, with 45% backing Romney. Obama's five point lead is right at the edge of the survey's sampling error. It's also half the 10-point 53%-43% lead he held over the former Massachusetts governor in a Quinnipiac poll conducted late last month, prior to the debates.

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"The good news for Gov. Romney is that he has sliced President Obama's lead in Ohio in half in the last month," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The bad news for Romney, and the good news for Obama, is that no Republican has ever won the White House without carrying Ohio and the challenger is running out of time to make up the remaining difference."

A Fox News Poll released Friday, which along with the Quinnipiac survey, was also conducted entirely after last Tuesday's second presidential debate, indicated the president with a narrower three-point 46%-43% advantage among likely voters.

According to the Quinnipiac poll, there's a wide gender gap, with Obama leading 55%-40% among women voters, with Romney ahead 51%-44% among men. Romney has a seven point 51%-44% advantage among white voters while the president is winning over nine in ten black voters. Those with college degrees are divided between the two candidates, while those without degrees are backing Obama 52%-43%.

"President Obama won 46 percent of the white vote in Ohio in 2008 when he carried the state by five points. Romney probably needs to hold Mr. Obama to less than 40 percent of the white vote if he is to win Ohio, and he has a ways to go at this point," added Brown.

The survey also indicates an income divide, with people making less than $30,000 a year supporting Obama by a nearly two to one advantage and those making more than $100,000 per year backing Romney by a 53%-45% margin. The GOP challenger also has a 49%-42% advantage among independent voters.

According to the poll, one in five likely voters say they've already cast a ballot. Of those early voters, Obama leads 54%-39%.

Buckeye voters are more optimistic about the economy in their state. They're split on whether the national economy is getting better, but by a 46%-42% margin, they say things are improving in Ohio. Buckeye voter are tied at 48% when asked which candidate would do a better job on the economy.

Ohio and two other swing states–Florida and Virginia–have been receiving a lion's share of attention from the presidential campaigns, ranging from candidate visits to ad spending, during the general election.

The poll also indicates Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leading State Treasurer Josh Mandel, the Republican nominee, the state's U.S. Senate contest.

The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted October 17-20, with 1,548 likely voters in Ohio. The survey's overall sampling error for likely voters is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

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Filed under: 2012 • Mitt Romney • Ohio • Polls • President Obama
soundoff (42 Responses)
  1. The fact is

    The race is very close. It can go either way. Just go out to vote. Every vote counts.

    October 22, 2012 11:48 am at 11:48 am |
  2. bob adams

    I think they need to fight for other states, I don't care what the polls say Obama will win Ohio easy.

    October 22, 2012 11:49 am at 11:49 am |
  3. James

    Obama Said He Would Bankrupt the Coal Industry: The EPA is Doing It For Him.

    You in Ohio, you get you're energy from coal....Do you want you're state destroyed by Barack "DOUBLE DOWNGRADE Blame and Lie" Obama
    Not no but HELL NO!!!!!!!!!!!

    October 22, 2012 11:51 am at 11:51 am |

    Obama hasn't polled above 50% in any un-bias poll this year. Not that it stops the O-Team from using them..

    October 22, 2012 11:53 am at 11:53 am |
  5. Get Real

    I believe that was about the same poll in 2010 when it stated Strickland was leading Kasich for the Governor. And look what happened. Another meaningless poll.

    October 22, 2012 12:02 pm at 12:02 pm |
  6. ghostriter

    We've seen Obama in the urban parts of Cleveland (is there any other part of Cleveland). Romney tends to campaign in Westlake and Twinsburg.

    This story might explain why.

    October 22, 2012 12:04 pm at 12:04 pm |
  7. Rick McDaniel

    We cannot trust anything the media tells us about Ohio, because the media have been found to be deceitful and partisan.

    They will say this, only to try to influence public opinion, to make people vote THEIR way........and the citizens need to be very wary, of the control, over the media, that the Democratic Party now is exercising. It is rampant, and blatant, and there is NO QUESTION of its existence.

    Be extremely careful of what you believe, in the media. Much of it, is simply a lie........controlled by the Democratic Party owners of the networks!

    October 22, 2012 12:05 pm at 12:05 pm |
  8. the situation

    Yes, yes. Ohio's going to decide the election giving Obama a narrow win in the electoral college while he loses the popular vote. The sad thing is, in two years, all the regret in the world won't undo it. We will be stuck with a president who's lack of leadership, ethics, and competence will result in nothing being done to bring the economy back from the brink. Ohio won't be solely responsible for our disaster, but they'll sure as hell be a big part of it.

    October 22, 2012 11:05 am at 11:05 am |

    Lacking Ethics. At least Obama never had to lie about a country that have WMD, stealing a college kid report to trump up the war machine.

    If you believe Obama lack ethics, what does that make Dubya then since he had his brother state to steal an elections. Lied in front of the UN on Sept 12, 2002 about Iraq and their WMD. Had broadcast a tape of Bin Laden the day prior to the 2004 elections to place fear in the hearts of all the citizens. Did nothing for the City of New Orleans when Katrina happen. Was the root cause why the economy was on the verge of disaster. Obama has his faults but you Rethugs love to have forgetful memory the disaster that was George Walker Bush and all what he created in his 8 years running wild.

    October 22, 2012 12:06 pm at 12:06 pm |
  9. betterdays

    I live in Ohio, and I can tell you that the uneducated, unsuccessful people in my city (Toledo) rival any I've seen anywhere for sheer ignorance, bullheadedness, entitlement attitude, inability to connect cause and effect, and exceedingly poor taste in just about everything. And I can tell you which way the vast majority of those "folks" will be voting...

    October 22, 2012 12:07 pm at 12:07 pm |
  10. freedom

    The Columbus Dispatch recently endorsed Romney – not all Ohioans are in the Obama camp. And incidentally Romney is leading in almost every other state that's in question – where are the headlines on that?

    October 22, 2012 12:12 pm at 12:12 pm |
  11. Chris Williams

    To me the economy is the issue and they only issue, fix it and you fix the country, and frankly Obama has no clue. He wasted two years on health care, when he should have focused on the economy. If he had fixed it, than he would have been hailed a hero. We would have put his silhouette on Mount Rushmore, and the American people would have given him Carte Blanche to do whatever he wanted in a second term. Alas it didn’t happen. Obama has said you can’t change Washington from inside the White House, then what is he doing asking for another four years? Obama has said the problems with this country are anybody’s fault but his. Give me another four years, and I will figure it out, Mr. President, I am tired of waiting for you to figure it out. It is plain; by your own admission, the problems facing this country are beyond the capabilities and resolve of you and your team. For this I have VOTED ALREADY for some R & R.

    October 22, 2012 12:13 pm at 12:13 pm |
  12. ShawnDH

    Rick McDaniel whined, "We cannot trust anything the media tells us about Ohio, because the media have been found to be deceitful and partisan. Be extremely careful of what you believe, in the media. Much of it, is simply a lie........controlled by the Democratic Party owners of the networks!"

    Clearly, babbling about the imaginary "liberal media bias" is just loser talk. It's really sad to see how desperate and brainwashed American conservatives have become. EVERYTHING is a conspiracy. Turn off FoxNews and get a grip.

    Now on the actual topic, Romney does not hae a realistic path to 270 and will not win this election.

    October 22, 2012 12:15 pm at 12:15 pm |
  13. Sharon

    I do agree the media misrepresents and tend to try to cause a panic, but Fox News is pretty bad so that is not a fair statement. By the way, there's no doubt in my mind that Obama is going to win.

    October 22, 2012 12:16 pm at 12:16 pm |
  14. Dialmyheart

    I can guarantee you 100% that Barrack Hussein Obama will be re-elected as the next president of the United States.GUARANTEED!

    October 22, 2012 12:16 pm at 12:16 pm |
  15. Anonymous

    Rick McDaniel

    We cannot trust anything the media tells us about Ohio, because the media have been found to be deceitful and partisan.

    Is the media stopping you or anyone else from voting Republican? Take your whining and go somewhere else. You sound as delusional as your candidate.

    October 22, 2012 12:22 pm at 12:22 pm |
  16. mark

    I would much rather be in Obama's shoes than Romney's. A lead is a lead and this one is outside the error margin. Romney has peaked in Ohio and has come up shift.

    October 22, 2012 12:24 pm at 12:24 pm |
  17. ShawnDH

    freedom cried, "The Columbus Dispatch recently endorsed Romney – not all Ohioans are in the Obama camp. And incidentally Romney is leading in almost every other state that's in question – where are the headlines on that?"

    Obama is leading in OH, CO, IA, WI, PA, NV, they are tied in VA and Romney is a little ahead in NC and FL, which Obama doesn't even need to win. Nice try, though.

    October 22, 2012 12:25 pm at 12:25 pm |
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