Poll: Warren 53%-Brown 46% in Mass. Senate race
October 30th, 2012
12:41 PM ET
10 years ago

Poll: Warren 53%-Brown 46% in Mass. Senate race

(CNN) - With one week to go until Election Day, a new survey in the high profile Senate battle in Massachusetts indicates that the Democratic challenger has the edge.

According to a Suffolk University/7 News poll released Tuesday, 53% of likely voters in the Bay State say they support Democratic nominee Elizabeth Warren, with 46% backing Republican Sen. Scott Brown.

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Warren's seven point advantage is just within the survey's sampling error. It's also an increase from the four-point 48%-44% edge she held over Brown in Suffolk's September poll.

The poll's release comes hours before what was supposed to be the fourth and final debate between the freshman senator and Warren, the Harvard University professor and former Obama administration official whose brainchild was the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Monday both candidates canceled their appearances in the debate, citing worsening storm conditions caused by Hurricane Sandy. The debate was supposed to be moderated by CNN Chief National Correspondent John King.

The Massachusetts contest is one of the priciest and most high profile Senate battles in the country. While a Boston Globe poll released Monday indicated the race was basically tied, some other recent surveys over the past few weeks gave Warren a single digit advantage.

According to the Suffolk University poll, 51% of likely Massachusetts voters say they view Warren favorably, with 36% saying the see her in an unfavorable way. Massachusetts voters appear split on Brown, with 45% viewing him favorably and 42% seeing him in a negative way.

The poll indicates that by a 51%-36% margin, voters see Warren as the candidate who better represents interests of the middle class, better represents the interests of Massachusetts (48%-38%) and is running the better campaign (43%-32%). But a plurality (46%-41%) see Brown as the candidate who would be a more independent senator.

"There is a difference between being an independent voice and being the voice of independents," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. "Brown still leads Warren among un-enrolled voters, but the margin has dropped below the 60 percent threshold, especially among women who are independents and in urban areas."

In January 2010, then state lawmaker Brown scored a big upset, winning a special election to serve the remaining two and a half years of the late Democratic Sen. Ted Kennedy's term. Brown won thanks to support from independent voters and thanks partially to the strong backing from local tea party groups.

Massachusetts is also the home state to Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, who served one term as Bay State governor last decade. But the state leans Democrat in presidential contests, and the Suffolk survey indicates President Barack Obama with a more than two to one lead over Romney (63%-31%).

The Suffolk University 7 News poll was conducted Oct. 25-28, with 600 likely voters in Massachusetts questioned by telephone. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus four percentage points.

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Filed under: 2012 • Elizabeth Warren • Massachusetts • Scott Brown
soundoff (19 Responses)

    I'm not a big fan of polls, but this poll actually looks believable.

    October 30, 2012 12:43 pm at 12:43 pm |
  2. jkane sfl a vote for lady parts romney the tax cheat and lyin lady parts ryan willcut your moms medicare and soc sec . .can you afford to pay for them???

    Great ,we don't need any more incompetent gop loser teaparty goofballs in our goverment . Kick all these loser extremest out next week . And to crossroads ,your lieing romney ads don't work ,you will find out on Nov 6 .

    October 30, 2012 12:47 pm at 12:47 pm |
  3. ghostriter

    "In January 2010, then state lawmaker Scott Brown scored a big upset, winning a special election to serve the remaining two and a half years of the late Democratic Sen. Ted Kennedy's term."

    Now, all conservatives please read that part for the next 20 minutes. Then come back and tell us how Obama had a filibuster proof majority for 2 years. again. When you add in that Kennedy was on his death bed and probably not voting much, it makes the claim even more ludicrous.

    October 30, 2012 12:56 pm at 12:56 pm |
  4. California Gary

    The polls in Mass. have been all over the map.......just a few days ago she was down, and now she's up. Hard to know where the race actually stands. I hope this latest poll is the correct one........she would make a much better senator than Brown.

    October 30, 2012 12:56 pm at 12:56 pm |
  5. Citizen

    Now all the republican Supers PACs, especially Mr. Rove's, will start saturating Mass airwaves with lies and innuendos about Prof. Warren. It must be pointed out that significant percent of Mr. Brown's war chest is made of contributions from out of state, hey why not few more millions from rich donors.

    October 30, 2012 01:07 pm at 1:07 pm |
  6. Joe Mama

    Come on people. This is Ms. Warren's career here. We can't let her down. This is all about her. She would be embarrassed and have to return to teaching a single class each year for her $350k/year salary at Harvard. We would bruise this poor woman's ego?? She deserves to be able to sit in Washington and think even more highly of herself and do what is asked of her by those in power in return for favors. Do we really want some self-made guy who will act on his conscience instead of blindly following party lines? He'd just waste all of his time serving the stupid taxpayers instead of focusing on what's really important: himself. Warren is definitely the most qualified to serve herself. And that's really what it's all about.

    October 30, 2012 01:25 pm at 1:25 pm |
  7. g

    Scott Brown voted against the equal pay for equal work law. In his misogynistic mind, Scott Brown believes that women are not worthy of being paid the same wages or salary as men for the same work.

    October 30, 2012 01:26 pm at 1:26 pm |
  8. rufus

    I think the Indian vote is what's giving her the lead.

    October 30, 2012 01:27 pm at 1:27 pm |
  9. Anonymous


    Get serious!!

    October 30, 2012 01:37 pm at 1:37 pm |
  10. ManOWords

    Scott Brown is just another Willard Mitler in a suit. Elizabeth Warren has proven her worth for the Middle Class! Massachusetts knows Willard oh too well. Pahtological, flip flopping (daily) phony out to keep himself and Lyin Ryan, Wall Street, CEO bonus boys, the Trumps, the Newts, Rush on oxycontins, etc. richer than rich. Not on our watch!!

    October 30, 2012 01:40 pm at 1:40 pm |
  11. ST

    Now which poll we have to take as the credible one. This poll shows quite the opposite of the poll of yesterday. Please stop bombarding us with polls. We can live without seeing them for seven days.

    October 30, 2012 01:41 pm at 1:41 pm |
  12. Karl

    Quick Republicans send more money. We have to get this Tea Party Republican re-elected. It's not to late this election can be bought.

    October 30, 2012 01:54 pm at 1:54 pm |
  13. Getitright

    Even if you like a Republican who may be just a bit more moderate he/she will never be able to vote any differently than the tea party folks who are in charge right now. Other Republicans have felt the "rath" of the party for not being "lock step" with them in their efforts to obstruct the President. It would seem that no matter which Republican we vote for, all we'll get is the extreme outcome of the tea party. I just don't see any way around that.

    October 30, 2012 01:55 pm at 1:55 pm |
  14. Claudia, Houston, Tx

    Too bad Scott Brown is losing because as a Democrat I liked him in the beginning and then he went to Washington and let the other Republicans corrupt him just because he tried to get along with Democrats.

    October 30, 2012 01:55 pm at 1:55 pm |
  15. MaryM

    Elizabeth is for the middle class Americans. Get out a vote Mass.

    October 30, 2012 02:03 pm at 2:03 pm |
  16. Gurgyl

    Mass, god bless you –go for Elizabeth.

    October 30, 2012 02:13 pm at 2:13 pm |


    WARREN 2012!!!

    these polls are still meaningless

    October 30, 2012 02:14 pm at 2:14 pm |
  18. Scott

    Suffolk UNiversity??? Never heard of it, Is it a liberal college?

    October 30, 2012 02:20 pm at 2:20 pm |
  19. Ancient Texan

    It will be closer than this poll, I'd wager. Seems EVERY poll is now slanted one way or the other. The one I'll believe is on Nov. 6th.

    October 30, 2012 02:29 pm at 2:29 pm |