Polls: Close contests in Ohio, Florida and Virginia
October 31st, 2012
07:00 AM ET
10 years ago

Polls: Close contests in Ohio, Florida and Virginia

(CNN) - With six days to go until the presidential election, new polls in arguably the three most important battleground states indicate President Barack Obama with a small advantage over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in Ohio, and the race basically deadlocked in Florida and Virginia.

According to a CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University survey released Wednesday, the president holds a 50%-45% edge among likely voters in Ohio. Obama's five point advantage is within the poll's sampling error.

- Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @PoliticalTicker

- Check out the CNN Electoral Map and Calculator and game out your own strategy for November.

The poll is the fourth non-partisan, live operator, survey of likely voters in Ohio (where 18 electoral votes are up for grabs) that's been conducted over the past nine days. A CNN Poll of Polls that averages all four Ohio surveys indicates Obama at 49% among likely voters and Romney at 46%. In modern times, no Republican has won the White House without capturing the Buckeye State.

In Florida, the CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll indicates the president at 48% and Romney at 47%, which is well within the survey's sampling error. A CNN/ORC International poll released Monday in the Sunshine State also suggested a very close race, with Romney at 50% and Obama at 49% among likely voters. Twenty-nine electoral votes are at stake in Florida.

The CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac poll indicates the president with a slight 49%-47% edge in Virginia, where 13 electoral votes are up for grabs. The margin is also within the survey's sampling error.

According to the poll, Romney is now ahead among seniors in Florida, and has increased his lead with white voters. He also has a large lead in Virginia among independent voters. Both candidates are pretty much even in Florida and Ohio on the question of who would do a better job running the economy, while Romney has the edge on the economy in Virginia.

The survey indicates that the president leads 60%-34% in Ohio and 50%-44% in Florida among those who say they've already voted. Only a very small percentage of people in Virginia say they've already cast a ballot.

The three CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University polls were conducted Oct. 23-28, entirely after the final presidential debate, with 1,073 likely voters in Florida, 1,110 likely voters in Ohio, and 1,074 likely voters in Virginia questioned by telephone. The surveys' sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

Filed under: 2012 • Florida • Mitt Romney • Ohio • President Obama • Virginia
soundoff (12 Responses)
  1. Chris Christie

    MEMO TO CNN: A 5 pt lead in Ohio is not a tie. You imbeciles!!!!

    October 31, 2012 07:12 am at 7:12 am |
  2. spike

    its not close obama will lose – you pathetic for calling it close

    October 31, 2012 07:23 am at 7:23 am |
  3. Neloty

    This election is bout who cares the most about the midle class the answer is very simple: Obama/Biden. Folks remenber where we were four years ago, where were losing 700 000 jobs a month so now the economy is improving month by month but we still have more to do. So folks the only way we can continue this great work is to get out to votre and make sure you vote Obama/Biden. We can't go backward but forward. Obama/Biden for four more years...

    any vote makes a difference so it's important to get out to vote and make sure your cast your vote for Obama/Biden. The Republican has nothing serious to offer to the midleclass than putting us backward. As a great nation we need to go forward...Any body has to get a fair shot remenber we come so far to discontinue our great work. Obama/Biden 2012.

    October 31, 2012 07:33 am at 7:33 am |
  4. george

    yep pretty much obama has it no matter how fox news tries to set the pace, did you ever notice fox news does not allow any comments other than live shows? that way they can stop the truth from showing up.

    October 31, 2012 07:33 am at 7:33 am |
  5. apu, 20

    President Obama wants to look Presidential during his tour to the flood affected areas in the East Coast.

    He forgot he will be appearing with Governor Chris Christie. I am not sure it is possible to stand next to Chris Christie and not be overshadowed by his personality.

    October 31, 2012 07:41 am at 7:41 am |
  6. jebbo

    how is 5 points ahead within a MOE of 3? im no stats expert but ...

    October 31, 2012 07:47 am at 7:47 am |
  7. mkrauss

    Take a look at the last page of this poll where it states that 8% more democrats were polled. I think that means that Romney is up at least by 5% in every poll. CNN step up to the plate and start reporting both sides or you will continue to lose viewers. Say what you want about FOX but they at least report both sides of the news. Where is Libya in your news, what has gone one there is one big mishandled mess yet you refuse to report on it. I am done with CNN!!!

    October 31, 2012 08:05 am at 8:05 am |
  8. Christa

    If the margin of error in the poll is 3% points, and Obama is up 5% point, then this statement from the post is inaccurate. "Obama's five point advantage is within the poll's sampling error."

    October 31, 2012 08:08 am at 8:08 am |
  9. Chooch0253

    Regardless this news piece, I am certain Romney supporters will continue to claim that Romney is ahead in the polls. It is similar to an alcoholic claiming he does not have a problem with alcohol. Denial.

    October 31, 2012 08:08 am at 8:08 am |
  10. Marty, FL

    Early voted for steady, consistent, and supportive leadership.

    President Obama 2012

    October 31, 2012 08:10 am at 8:10 am |
  11. Kirk in michigan

    Why would a pollig company call me and not even ask who i was voting for? i no longer put any merit in the polls, they are obviously being manipulated. big surprise huh

    October 31, 2012 08:26 am at 8:26 am |
  12. Bee

    Vote for Mitt the Twit to start a War and Screw the Poor!!!

    October 31, 2012 08:29 am at 8:29 am |