New polls assess 10 potentially important electoral votes
November 3rd, 2012
09:38 PM ET
10 years ago

New polls assess 10 potentially important electoral votes

(CNN) - New polls out Saturday in two of the smaller battleground states – where the first votes of this cycle were counted last January - show a neck-and-neck race in one state and an advantage for President Barack Obama in another.

In Iowa, which has six electoral votes, Obama has an edge over GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney among likely voters, 47% to 42%, according to a Des Moines Register Iowa Poll.

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The race for four electoral votes in New Hampshire is a dead heat, according to the WMUR Granite State Poll. Obama and Romney are tied at 47% among likely voters, the poll showed, and when asked towards whom they are leaning, the state's small number of undecided likely voters are evenly split.

A series of polls in key states has begun to trickle in over the past 24 hours, giving a view of the race just days out from Election Day on Tuesday. Polling was suspended in some states and nationwide as Superstorm Sandy tore into the East Coast on Monday and Tuesday. Two samples of Ohio, including a CNN/ORC International poll, showed Obama had an advantage in the Buckeye State. In Florida, one poll showed Romney with an advantage and another showed Obama had an edge.

Just over four in ten Iowa voters have already cast ballots, and Obama has a 22 point lead among those who have voted early. The poll also shows Romney with an eight point advantage among those who plan to cast ballots on Election Day, and that early voting has been lighter among the more Republican areas in the state's Northwest.

New Hampshire has limited absentee voting ahead of Election Day, but no early polling.

In the Granite State, this poll reflects a tightening since early October, when several polls showed Obama held a lead – 15 points by the WMUR poll’s assessment - over Romney, who was the former governor of the state's southern neighbor, Massachusetts, and who owns a home in New Hampshire.

A separate poll of Iowa likely voters, conducted Sunday and Monday, showed Obama at 50% and Romney at 40%.

In the New Hampshire gubernatorial race, the poll indicates former state Sen. Maggie Hassan, a Democrat, has a five point advantage over the Republican, lawyer Ovide Lamontagne.

The Iowa poll included 800 likely voters reached between October 30 and November 2. It has a sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 points.

The New Hampshire survey was conducted between October 31 and November 2. It included 502 likely voters and has a sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 points.

Filed under: 2012 • Iowa • New Hampshire
soundoff (21 Responses)
  1. Will

    I am severely disapointed about how CNN has covered this election.

    November 3, 2012 09:44 pm at 9:44 pm |
  2. An objective observer

    Yes to another 4 years .... Obama/Biden 2012

    November 3, 2012 10:15 pm at 10:15 pm |
  3. Chipster

    How do you decide to support Romney, the Weathervane: Pro-choice/Pro-life; opposed Don't Ask-Don't Tell, then supported it; didn't want to go to Vietnam, then claimed he wanted to serve in Vietnam; Supported gun control in MA, now he doesn't support any gun laws; supported govt health care in MA, now opposes it nationally; believed in Global Warming, now he doesn't; on gay marriage: "Like the vast majority of Americans, I've opposed same-sex marriage, but I've also opposed unjust discrimination against anyone, for racial or religious."

    And these are not even close to all the disagreements Romney seems to have with Romney. So how does anyone support someone who is in complete opposition to himself?

    November 3, 2012 10:21 pm at 10:21 pm |

    I seriously hope people will wake up and vote Obama. I genuinely believe if you allow your anger and frustration to getting the way of common sense, you will be regretting the day you pulled a lever for Mitt Romney. In a year, you will wander, Whar was I thinking?"

    November 3, 2012 10:37 pm at 10:37 pm |
  5. ducky657

    Don't listen to polls or anyone talking about polls. They mean nothing (especially in states that are tied) and are intended to do one thing–spark interest or apathy. Vote for who you believe will do the best job and disregard everything else–don't let cynicism or discouragement keep you from voting!

    November 3, 2012 10:48 pm at 10:48 pm |
  6. Gitonga George Kairithia

    It is clear that pollsters for first time have failled to predict this election.. Is it Obama or Romney?

    November 3, 2012 10:58 pm at 10:58 pm |
  7. Observer

    Just want to say good luck to both parties, I don't either one said anything about the secondary school system though and I think that's where the biggest change has to take place in American society, in order for America to remain ahead of the rest of the world. Currently about half of those who graduate high school don't go on to the next level of education, that's approximately 1 million young people joining the workforce every year, that are not given the tools the need to succeed right out of the gate. School was set up when America was an agricultural society, it has to be completely changed to deal with the industrial age in which we live. That's not a little change either, schools will have to be completely reconfigured, Germany has already done this and their workforce is stronger because of it. How its done will be a challenge, but it must be done and quickly to maintain America's leadership roll in the world.

    The faster the better.

    Lucid One

    November 3, 2012 11:18 pm at 11:18 pm |
  8. the situation


    The Des Moines Register, who last week endorsed Romney and all you Rethugs were popping off Champagnes has the President 47-42 lead.

    So I guess it's a left wing conspiracy. Please do tell Rethugs, lets' hear all the excuses!

    The End is Near for Mitts!

    November 3, 2012 11:25 pm at 11:25 pm |
  9. Thomas

    The greatest concern cited by Dick Morris is the increase in President Barack Obama’s favorability rating in the days since Hurricane Sandy struck the northeastern region of the United States.

    Dick Morris on Fox , the guy used to be a democrat , was fired from for being weird and messing around on his wife.
    He sure doesn't like it when the President dose the right thing .

    This is the same guy who said Romney will win in a landslide .

    November 3, 2012 11:28 pm at 11:28 pm |
  10. the situation

    PPP has Obama up over 50% in PA and MI

    PA: 52-46
    MI: 52-46

    November 3, 2012 11:29 pm at 11:29 pm |
  11. Rick McDaniel

    Polls are no longer reliable, as the models have been impacted by Hurricane Sandy's impact on the polling.

    November 3, 2012 11:29 pm at 11:29 pm |

    its all over bar the shouting and the media knows it . in Iowa were Obama leads by 22% in early voting means Romney needs to win about 65% of the remaining voters not going to happen and CNN knows it . in Ohio Obama has a 7 point lead in polls current today and leads by a large margin in votes cast early so the math is extraordinary hard for romney in ohio . axelrod was right he said WE HAVE THE MATS THAEY HAVE THE MYTH . THE MAINSTREAM MEDIA ARE FULL OF SHIT THIS RACE IS OVER THEY NOR THE GOP COULD AT THE END OF THE DAY BREAD DOWN OBAMA S defences . OBAMA WILL IN VIRGINIA ROMNEY WILL TAKE NORTH CAROLINA THAT'S A SAFE REPUBLICAN STATE N/C BEFORE OBAMA IT HAD NOT VOTED DEM SINCE LBJ .why i love this election it was the election that even the mainstream media could not win for the GOP hence the media also have been defeated this election that don't happen often .

    November 4, 2012 12:24 am at 12:24 am |
  13. J.V.Hodgson

    Romney can have New hampshire and Florida but he will lose in Ohio, Pensylvania , Michigan and Wisconsin. O
    Tha'ts 64 electoral votes. Obama then needs only one of Iowa, Colorado or Nevada to confirm the win. Minnesota and Oregon will go democratic. As will Montana and Arizona go Republican. QED it then matters not even if Romney wins Virgina and North Carolina.
    Obama leads even in polls in some of the states conceded above, any one of which simply enhances his electoral win.
    Dems should spend big money, time, to get out the vote in the North east corridor and Nevada + Florida the rest dont matter too much from Obama's electoral college vote perspective. The others he needs to win.

    November 4, 2012 12:58 am at 12:58 am |
  14. Edward

    While our men were being killed in Vietnam, Romney was hiding behind the holy cross in France. Romney the for President? Not over my bubbies, crave. My Vote is for Obama.

    November 4, 2012 01:47 am at 1:47 am |
  15. robert

    Has anyone polled indiana for the presidential race since murdoch has selfdestructed and romney is still supporting him??

    November 4, 2012 04:27 am at 4:27 am |
  16. Griff.

    "Why is your bias so wrong?? As Romney said at the Debate, CNN seem to think if they say it enough, then we begin to believe it?? Romney will take Iowa, Ohio, and Newhampshire, along with those that are already sound GOP."

    November 4, 2012 05:01 am at 5:01 am |
  17. guest

    I will be so happy when this election is over. If you plan to vote on Tuesday, be prepared for long lines! I voted for President Obama last week and waited over two hours (It was well worth it though). My advice is bring TWO forms of ID, a chair, some snacks, and your patience. I also suggest being ready to use your cell phone cameras/videos to document any forms of intimidation/suspicious behavior. There is too much at stake in this election!

    November 4, 2012 06:00 am at 6:00 am |
  18. Steve in North Carolina

    These polls stand in stark contrast to Gallup and Rasmussen which shows a dead heat tie and are just as recent.

    November 4, 2012 07:01 am at 7:01 am |
  19. Toni mikel

    I've just returned from canvassing in more rural conservative Iowa near Missouri border and I saw more Obama signs than Romney signs in in actual home yards; whereas Romney signs were placed in vacant areas! Most of these voters like to vote Tuesday because it is a community gathering event. Of each and every voter I reached not ONE had turned Romney and of eleven leaning Romney new residents I was able to give facts to persuade a considerable change of mind or made a voter for the Presidebt by stating the facts of out of state residents that had not planned on voting because of moving. And then I also had case of two felons that it was too late to get paperwork for them to vote since Iowa governor made it difficult for long ago paroled felons to register. We missed many good votes of young men who had turned their lives around the chance to vote because of this. I also got two Indian new naturalized citizens to vote Obama! Iowa looks strong for President! From canvassing and Facebooking people thru Mo, Ok, IA I do notice a scary trend of religious propaganda of lies told thru Churches about President. Somekind of awful slanderous film is given to church viewers:gossiped over?!?! These elder Iowan ladies just aren't so stupid:)

    November 4, 2012 07:17 am at 7:17 am |
  20. Gurgyl

    Obama needs a very thorough Security. Let us protect THIS President. USA needs him. Obama12.

    November 4, 2012 07:28 am at 7:28 am |
  21. Ronaldo

    Wake Up America! Don'y believe the CNN liberal bias. Wolfe, Candy, Andrea, and especially Soledad all should be wearing Obama stickers on their foreheads. CNN is not independent and objective journalism. CNN is Barack and Michelle's lapdog. CNN is unprofessional and all reports are totally spun towards Obama.

    November 4, 2012 08:43 am at 8:43 am |