CNN's GUT CHECK for November 4, 2013

CNN's GUT CHECK | for November 4, 2013 | 5 p.m.
– n. a pause to assess the state, progress or condition of the political news cycle

BREAKING … JAKE TAPPER SCOOP: OBAMACARE WAR ROOM DOCS REVEAL CONCERN THAT NEXT MEDIA STORY WOULD BE HIGHER PRICES, FEWER OPTIONS: Officials expressed concern that the next shoe to drop in the evolving story about the Affordable Care Act would be disappointment from consumers once they are able to get on the troubled HealthCare.gov website – disappointment because of sticker shock and limited choice, according to a new document obtained by CNN. See the War Room docs for yourself: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/11/04/2013-11-04.qhp.war.room.notes.10.28.pdf

THE MOST IMPORTANT RACE TOMORROW: The Virginia governor's race, billed as the marquee battle of an otherwise anticlimactic 2013 election cycle, is shaping up to be a foregone conclusion. – Peter Hamby

BIDEN: THIS ELECTION IS A REFERENDUM ON THE TEA PARTY
VICE PRESIDENT BIDEN AT A TERRY MCAULIFFE CAMPAIGN EVENT IN VIRGINIA: "I'm not just here for Terry. I'm not just here because I'm a Democrat. I'm here because this race matters well beyond the state of Virginia. … This race has captured the attention of the entire nation not just because it's an off-year race in a bellwether state that has become the face of the new progress in this country. But because it's the first major race between the forces and faces of the new Republican Tea Party, a Tea Party who's social recidivism is outdone only by its hostility to science and technology, innovation and scholarship…. I think the motto of the Tea Party should be, 'back to the future,’ because really, think about it. Think about everything they are talking about. It's about undoing the progress that the vast majority of the American people think was progress."

OBAMA: THIS ELECTION IS ABOUT THE SHUTDOWN:
PRESIDENT OBAMA TOLD VIRGINIANS SUNDAY IN ARLINGTON AT A MCAULIFFE RALLY: “You've seen an extreme faction of the Republican Party that has shown again and again and again that they're willing to highjack the entire party - and the country and the economy - and grind progress to an absolute halt if they don't get 100% of what they want."

FRONTRUNNERS:

MCAULIFFE: A new poll indicates Democrat Terry McAuliffe maintains his advantage over Republican Ken Cuccinelli, one day before the two candidates square off on Election Day in Virginia's gubernatorial race. – Ashley Killough

DE BLASIO: On Election Eve in New York City, a new survey tells the same story: Democrat Bill de Blasio is the overwhelming front runner in the battle for mayor. – Bryan Koenig

CHRISTIE: On the eve of Election Day 2013, three new polls reconfirm the story line of the entire campaign in New Jersey: Republican Gov. Chris Christie's easily going to win re-election. – Paul Steinhauser

GUT CHECK DVR: Jake Tapper travels behind the scenes with Gov. Chris Christie for an exclusive interview on Election Day, airing on CNN's The Lead with Jake Tapper at 4p.m. ET.

THE BUZZ: SHOULD WE BEEF UP TSA? AMERICAN FEDERATION OF GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES NATIONAL PRESIDENT J. DAVID COX SR. IN A WRITTEN STATEMENT: “The sad truth is that our TSA officers are subject to daily verbal assaults and far too frequent physical attacks while performing their security duties. … At this time, we feel a larger and more consistent armed presence in screening areas would be a positive step in improving security for both TSOs and the flying public. The development of a new class of TSA officers with law enforcement status would be a logical approach to accomplishing this goal.”

MARKET WATCH: U.S. stocks finish little changed, with Dow gaining 24 points. BlackBerry shares fall 16% after buyer search ends.

TRAIL TRIVIA
(Answer below)

How many of Virginia’s 13 congressional officials (Representatives and Senators) are native-born Virginians?

the LEDE
Did you miss it?

Leading CNNPolitics: Senate to vote on LGBT discrimination bill
The Senate will take up an anti-discrimination bill to protect lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender employees from workplace discrimination. -Leigh Ann Caldwell

Leading Drudge: Sauk Rapids Graphic Artist Challenges National Security Agency
It was Edward Snowden’s revelations of domestic spying by the National Security Agency that hatched the idea — graphic artist Dan McCall would take the NSA’s emblem and create a new look with a funny twist. – Bill Hudson

Leading HuffPo: Insurance Companies Use 'Misleading' Cancellation Notices On Obamacare
Some insurance companies are sending cancellation notices or other "misleading" letters to customers in an attempt to push them into pricier alternatives, according to new reports. – Ariel Edwards-Levy

Leading Politico: Ken Cuccinelli fights stench of doom
In politics, it is generally not a good omen when a candidate’s supporters argue that he still has a chance of victory — if the opponent’s supporters neglect to vote. – James Hohmann

Leading The New York Times: Koch Group Has Ambitions in Small Races
Iowa — Election seasons in this small eastern Iowa town are usually cordial affairs. But this year, a group backed by the billionaire Koch brothers has changed that. – John Eligon

HOT SOTS
The political bites of the day

- "Yes, I'm gay." -
MAINE DEMOCRATIC GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE REP. MIKE MICHAUD COMES OUT IN AN OP-ED IN THE PORTLAND PRESS HERALD: "I wasn’t surprised to learn about the whisper campaigns, insinuations and push-polls some of the people opposed to my candidacy have been using to raise questions about my personal life. They want people to question whether I am gay. . .Allow me to save them the trouble with a simple, honest answer: ‘Yes I am. But why should it matter?’ That may seem like a big announcement to some people. For me, it’s just a part of who I am, as much as being a third-generation mill worker or a lifelong Mainer. One thing I do know is that it has nothing to do with my ability to lead the state of Maine."

- The Speaker knows what it's like to be afraid -
CHAD GRIFFIN, PRESIDENT OF THE HUMAN RIGHTS CAMPAIGN IN AN INTERVIEW WITH THE AP ABOUT BOEHNER AND THE SENATE GAY RIGHTS BILL: "The Speaker, of all people, should certainly know what it's like to go to work every day afraid of being fired. Instead of letting the far right trample him again, it's time for Speaker Boehner to stand with the majority of everyday Republican voters and support ENDA."

- My former boss has “questionable principles” -
FORMER SEN. GEORGE LEMIEUX, CHARLIE CRIST'S FORMER CHIEF OF STAFF, IN A CALL ORGANIZED BY THE FLORIDA GOP: "Anyone who wants to be in high political office has to have a guiding set of principles upon which they can make decisions, and those principles are certainly in question here."

- Obama warns hometown heroes: I am term-limited -
PRESIDENT OBAMA TO THE CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS TEAM AT THE WHITE HOUSE: “So congratulations again to the Blackhawks. To the Bulls, Bears, Cubs, White Sox, I am term-limited so you guys gotta get moving. I need to see you here soon. Championships belong in Chicago.”

TOP TWEETS
What stopped us in 140 characters or less

Tasha Diakides (‏@TashaCNN)
.@PeterHambyCNN with10 more secrets from 'Double Down': Obama:"Turns out I'm really good at killing people." http://cnn.it/1gmwe2b

Glenn Thrush‏ (@GlennThrush)
Irritable Vowel Syndrome MT @MarkLeibovich:11/12 "GOP Needs Serious Proctology Exam," Barbour says. 11/13 "Barbour diagnosis: DC constipated

Liz Mair (‏@LizMair)
Finally, the Rick Perry team is vindicated. No, we didn't push Cain sexual harassment stuff. Our candidate just called him a "big stud."

Washington Post ‏(@washingtonpost)
Not too old, not too young. Not too rich, not too poor. These people seem to be Obamacare's biggest losers: http://wapo.st/1he4PAK

Ellen Carmichael ‏(@ellencarmichael)
Congressional Internet is spotty/down. Can actually hear screams (some my own) throughout the halls.

Hunter Walker ‏(@hunterw)
Bill de Blasio sniffing leaves and wearing a tropical shirt pic.twitter.com/re5a7MoGZm

Dan Merica (‏@danmericaCNN)
After a weeklong vacation, I have to admit: I didn't miss Twitter... at all.

rolandsmartin ‏(@rolandsmartin)
‘In 39 Years Of #SNL Only Three Black Women Have Been Part Of The Cast’ @rashadrobinson @rolandsmartin discuss... http://fb.me/2R28DdERk

Mediabistro (‏@Mediabistro)
Bye Bye, Bieber, Katy Perry Is Now Twitter’s Most Popular User http://mbist.ro/HoNDbx (via @alltwtr)

TRIVIA ANSWER from @sarafischer and Virginia Nicolaidis

Two of Virginia’s thirteen Representatives and Senators were born in Virginia, Rep. Randy Forbes and Rep. Eric Cantor. Both of Virginia’s senators, Mark Warner and Tim Kaine, were born in the Midwest, from Indianapolis and St. Paul respectively.

The eleven congressmen who are not Virginia-born all hail from the East coast - Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, Washington DC, Pennsylvania and Florida.

Tomorrow, this trend will continue in the state’s gubernatorial seat – unless Libertarian Robert Christopher Sarvis scores a huge upset victory. Sarvis was born in Annandale VA, while Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe was born in New York and Republican Ken Cuccinelli was born in New Jersey. (Current Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell was born in Philadelphia.)

GUT CHECK WINNER’S CIRCLE
(why aren’t you in it)

Congrats to Steve Liguori (‏@SteveL3877) and David Daniel ‏(@CNNLADavid) for correctly answering today’s Gut Check Trivia question.

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