CNN's GUT CHECK for February 4, 2014

CNN's GUT CHECK | for February 4, 2014 | 5 p.m.
– n. a pause to assess the state, progress or condition of the political news cycle

BREAKING …. THE OBAMACARE REPORT THAT WILL DEFINE THE MIDTERMS: The Affordable Care Act could reduce the labor force by the equivalent of 2.5 million workers in 2024, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office's annual outlook.

That doesn't mean employers will start swinging the ax or even that that many jobs will be lost, CBO says. Rather, more people will likely opt to reduce their hours, or leave the workforce entirely, so they stay under the income caps for Medicaid and federal subsidies.
"The estimated reduction stems almost entirely from a net decline in the amount of labor that workers choose to supply, rather than from a net drop in businesses' demand for labor," the report says. Therefore, it will more likely show up as a decline in share of the population participating in the labor force and in hours worked, rather than in spikes in unemployment or underemployment. – CNN Money’s Jeanne Sahadi

THE GOP POUNCES: Tweet from Speaker John Boehner: “CBO report confirms devastating impact of president's health care law on #jobs http://j.mp/1e0SS9I

ONE TOP DEMOCRATIC SOURCE TELLS CNN’s DANA BASH: “It just gives Republicans ammo for attacks this fall Dems knew were coming anyway. We already knew that if this election is a referendum on health care, we lose. If we make this a referendum of whose side are you on, we win.” The source also noted that Democrats tried to pin their attacks on Paul Ryan’s Medicare plan on CBO scores and it didn’t work well.

DEVELOPING …. OBAMA TOUTS $2B DIGITAL INVESTMENT … Nine-figure commitments from America’s leading technology and telecommunications firms will help U.S. students compete with their counterparts in nations with more technologically advanced schools, President Barack Obama said on Tuesday. The commitments from Verizon, Sprint and other major companies come in the form of services and devices, including $100 million worth of iPads and laptop computers from Apple, the California-based tech giant. – Kevin Liptak

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “In a country where we expect free Wifi with our coffee, we should definitely demand it in our schools.” – President Obama

PRIMARY PREVIEW IN THE CNN/ORC POLL
Jan. 31-Feb. 2
Democrats' Choice for Nominee in 2016

Hillary Clinton 70%
More liberal Democrat 10%
More conservative Democrat 15%

Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts

CNN/ORC POLL
Jan. 31-Feb. 2
Republicans' Choice for Nominee in 2016

Huckabee 14%
Paul 13%
Bush 10%
Christie 10%
Ryan 9%
Rubio 9%
Cruz 8%
Perry 8%
Santorum 4%

Sampling error: +/-4.5% pts

FIRST ON CNN: CONSERVATIVE GROUP PUSHES TO TOPPLE GOP LEADERS IN CONGRESS … A conservative group is launching a new campaign which calls on "the GOP leadership in both the House and the Senate to step aside." ForAmerica told CNN that it's putting six figures behind its "Dump the Leadership" campaign between now and November's leadership elections. – CNN’s Paul Steinhauser

THE BUZZ: Richard Sherman: ‘We read Peyton’s hand signals’
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS CORNERBACK RICHARD SHERMAN IN SPORTS ILLUSTRATED’S MMQB BLOG MONDAY: “All we did was play situational football,” Sherman says. “We knew what route concepts they liked on different downs, so we jumped all the routes. Then we figured out the hand signals for a few of the route audibles in the first half … Me, Earl [Thomas], Kam [Chancellor]… we’re not just three All-Pro players. We’re three All-Pro minds … Now, if Peyton had thrown in some double moves, if he had gone out of character, we could’ve been exposed.”

MARKET WATCH: U.S. stocks bounce up after a huge sell-off. Dow ends 71 points higher. S&P 500 gains 0.8%, NASDAQ adds 0.9%.

TRAIL TRIVIA
(Answer below)
In honor of Facebook’s 10th anniversary today, why is Facebook’s color scheme blue?

the LEDE
Did you miss it?

Leading CNNPolitics: Hillary Clinton's understudy waits in the wings
Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley is laying the groundwork for a presidential campaign with the intent of being ready should Hillary Clinton not run, a source close to the governor told CNN. O'Malley touched off 2016 speculation when he told the Washington Post last week that he can't wait for the former first lady and secretary of state to make a decision. He told CNN on Monday that he was working toward offering "a better direction for our country." – Dan Merica

Leading CNNMoney: Target exec gives hack details to Senate
The nation finally got a detailed account of the massive Target hack Tuesday, when the company's chief financial officer testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee. Target executive John Mulligan told senators it was the Justice Department that first notified the company of the data breach on Dec. 12. Three days later, Target was able to confirm hackers had slipped malware into their point-of-sale network, affecting all card terminals in U.S. stores. – Jose Pagliery

Leading Miami Herald: Jeb Bush backs Republican in new ad in Fla. race
Popular former Gov. Jeb Bush appears in a new TV ad to help Republican David Jolly in the race to fill the seat of the late Rep. Bill Young. The spot is funded by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and begins airing Tuesday in Florida's 13th Congressional District, which includes the St. Petersburg area. Bush, also a Republican, says in the ad that Jolly knows how to "get things done" in a dysfunctional Washington. Jolly is locked in a tight race with Democrat Alex Sink in the swing-voting district. – Michael Mishak

Leading Drudge: De Blasio Blasts 'obnoxious' Snowstorms!
Bill de Blasio is now visibly annoyed at the constant blizzards bombarding New York. Speaking at a press conference this morning, the new mayor repeatedly sighed and expressed his exasperation at Mother Nature, which is set to deliver the fourth significant snowstorm of his tenure later today, with yet more bad weather forecast for later week. – Colin Campbell

Leading New York Times: Senate Passes Long-Stalled Farm Bill
The nearly $1 trillion spending measure, approved with strong bipartisan support, reauthorizes programs for agriculture, dairy production, conservation, nutrition and international food aid. – Ron Nixon

Leading Roll Call: Senate Democrats Backed Obama On Overwhelming Number of 2013 Votes, CQ Roll Call Vote Studies Show
Every vulnerable Senate Democrat up for re-election in 2014 voted with President Barack Obama at least 90 percent of the time in 2013, according to CQ Roll Call’s latest vote studies, released Monday. Arkansas Democrat Mark Pryor broke with the president most often. Sens. Mark Begich, D-Alaska, Mary Landrieu, D-La. and Kay Hagan, D-N.C., voted for Obama’s position 97, 97, and 96 percent of the time, respectively. – Meredith Shiner

Leading Washington Post: No, CBO did not say Obamacare will kill 2 million jobs
Here we go again. During the 2012 campaign, The Fact Checker had to repeatedly explain that the Congressional Budget Office never said that the Affordable Care Act “killed” 800,000 jobs by 2021. Now, the CBO has released an updated estimate, nearly the triple the size of the earlier one: 2.3 million in 2021. The CBO’s estimate is mostly the result of an analysis of the impact of the law on the supply of labor. That means how many people choose to participate in the work force. In other words, the nonpartisan agency is examining whether the law increases or decreases incentives for people to work. – Glenn Kessler

HOT SOTS
The political bites of the day

- Rand Paul: ‘It’s a disaster out there’ -
SEN. RAND PAUL M.D., R-KENTUCKY, TO WOLF BLITZER ON CNN’S SITUATION ROOM: “I think that we’ve always said that Obamacare adds a cost to employment. If you increase a cost of employing someone you will cause unemployment. So if 2 million people won’t get their jobs because of Obamacare, economists also say another million people may be prevented from getting a job because we have to manage an enormous debt … We’ve got 20 million out of work. It’s a disaster out there and we need to decide are the president’s policies working or not working.”

- Obama to Fox News: What are you going to do when I’m gone?–
PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA IN AN INTERVIEW WITH BILL O’REILLY THAT AIRED MONDAY:
O’REILLY – I can’t speak for FOX News. All right, but I’m — I’m, you know, the table setter here … Do you think I’m being unfair to you, do you think I’ve been giving you —
PRESIDENT OBAMA – Absolutely. Of course you have, Bill. But, I like you anyway, Bill.
O’REILLY – Okay, but — give me how I’m unfair.
PRESIDENT OBAMA – It-it-but — look —
O’REILLY – Give me how I’m unfair. Come on, you can’t make that accusation without telling me.
PRESIDENT OBAMA – Bill — we’ve just run through an interview in which you asked about health, uh, health care not working, IRS where-where we, uh, wholly corrupt, Benghazi —
O’REILLY – All right.
PRESIDENT OBAMA – Right, so the list of issues that you talk about —
O’REILLY – But these are unanswered questions —
PRESIDENT OBAMA – Yeah, but-but-but they’re defined by you guys in a certain way. But this — look, this is okay. This-this is —
O’REILLY – Do you not —
PRESIDENT OBAMA – If you want to — if you want to be President of the United States, then you know that you’re going to be subject to criticism, and —
O’REILLY – But if it’s unfair, I-I want to know if it’s unfair. Is it un — criticism is criticism. It’s my job to give you a hard time.
PRESIDENT OBAMA – Here — here — here’s what I would say. I think regardless of whether it’s fair or not, uh, it has, uh, it has made FOX News very successful.
O’REILLY – But if I’m unfair, I want —
PRESIDENT OBAMA – Here’s what — here’s the thing you guys — here’s what you guys are gonna have to figure out is what are — what are you gonna do when I’m gone?

- I would vote to impeach Obama -
REP. PAUL BROUN, R-GEORGIA, GOP CANDIDATE FOR G.A. SEN., AT A TEA PARTY-SPONSORED CANDIDATE FORUM ON SATURDAY: “If House leadership brought an impeachment vote before the floor, then there would certainly be good reason for doing so, with substantive information and evidence to impeach the President … With the President repeatedly bypassing Congress through executive order, lying to the American people on Obamacare, and failing to address what really happened in Benghazi, I can understand why this would be an important issue to many Georgians right now.”

- Christie: Story hasn’t changed -
N.J. GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE ON NJ 101.5 FM ON MONDAY NIGHT: “Before these lanes were closed, I knew nothing about … I didn’t plan it. I didn’t authorize it. I didn’t approve it. I knew nothing about it.”

- Former Obama Energy Sec. says Keystone decision political -
FORMER ENERGY SEC. STEVEN CHU AT A NEWS CONFERENCE IN TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO: “I don’t have a position on whether the Keystone pipeline should be built. That is for the secretary of State and the President. But I will say that the decision on whether the construction should happen was a political one and not a scientific one.”

- Senator: Watch out: Your intellectual property is what they want -
SEN. SHELDON WHITEHOUSE, D-RHODE ISLAND, AT A JUDICIARY COMMITTEE HEARING ON TARGET, NEIMAN MARCUS BREACHES: “If you are not doing critical infrastructure but if you have significant intellectual property that is an important part of your business model you better be watching out for that too. Because there are folks across the Pacific who are probably in your data already and who have a national policy of trying to break into American computers, steal our intellectual property, (and) give it to competitor companies in order to seek competitive advantage.”

- Feinstein shops at Neiman –
SEN. DIANNE FEINSTEIN, D-CALIFORNIA, AT THE JUDICIARY COMMITTEE HEARING ON TARGET, NEIMAN MARCUS BREACHES TO NEIMAN MARCUS CIO MICHAEL KINGSTON: “I am a shopper at your institution Mr. Kingston. I don’t recall getting any notice that my data may have been breached.”

TOP TWEETS
What stopped us in 140 characters or less

Jake Tapper ‏(@jaketapper)
p. 127 of CBO report ACA means reduction in full-time-equivalent employment of ~2M in 2017 rising to ~2.5M 2024 http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/45010-Outlook2014.pdf …

Deirdre Walsh (‏@deirdrewalshcnn)
@NancyPelosi says CBO doesnt say Ocare costs jobs: says ppl who took jobs in order to get hcare don't have to be "job locked" anymore

Senator Ted Cruz ‏(@SenTedCruz)
Q: What would you call taking jobs away from nearly entire population of NV? A: What Obamacare does to workforce: http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2014/02/04/cbo-just-tripled-its-obamacare-damage-estimate/ …

Byron York ‏(@ByronYork)
With new CBO report, factcheckers will have to re-factcheck factchecks that accused GOP of misrepresentation. http://ow.ly/th6Cl

Peter Baker (‏@peterbakernyt)
After two years of shaking things up in Moscow, Amb @McFaul to return to California to rejoin family. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/05/world/europe/russia.html?emc=edit_tnt_20140204&tntemail0=y&_r=0 …

John Kerry (‏@JohnKerry)
Mike, thanks for the extraordinary service to your nation. Don't think going back to Cali means I won’t call for advice. #ProBono @McFaul

Luke Russert ‏(@LukeRussert)
Big: Via @costareports Amash & Labrador say to avoid "theater" on debt limit http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/02/04/conservatives-to-boehner-avoid-theater/ … #GOP

Roll Call (‏@rollcall)
@RollCallAbby strikes again: Lorenzo Lamas Mulls Run for Waxman's Seat http://hoh.rollcall.com/lorenzo-lamas-mulls-running-for-waxmans-seat/ … #hoh

Chris Geidner (‏@chrisgeidner)
NJ Dem Rep. Rob Andrews is resigning, which will shut down House Ethics Comte investigation: http://bit.ly/1enjiZn

David Fahrenthold (‏@Fahrenthold)
Rep. Rob Andrews (D-N.J.) proposed 646 bills, passed 0: worst record of past 20 years http://wapo.st/1enI6AC

David Daniel ‏(@CNNLADavid)
World Health Org: #cancer cases to rise 57% in 20 years, in imminent "human disaster" http://cnn.it/1iprE20 #CNN

Mark Warner (‏@MarkWarner)
It's true: I'm not a #Belieber. "Senator Mark Warner offers to sign petition to deport Justin Bieber" http://fm99.com/rumble/senator-mark-warner-offers-to-sign-petition-to-deport-justin-bieber/ …

TRIVIA ANSWER from @sarafischer

Blue dominates Facebook's color scheme because its founder, Mark Zuckerberg, suffers from red-green colorblindness, which enables Zuckerberg to see the color blue best. Not surprisingly, blue is also his favorite color.

In an interview with Antonio Vargas in the New Yorker in 2010, Zuckerberg says, "Blue is the richest color for me. I can see all of blue."

Zuckerberg’s house, which he found on Craigslist, is painted entirely in various shades of blue and beige with the exception of the kitchen which is vibrant yellow.

GUT CHECK WINNER’S CIRCLE
(why aren’t you in it)

Congrats to Steve Liguori (@SteveL3877) and Serge Eygenson (@Serge_E) for correctly answering today’s Gut Check Trivia question.

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