2016 polls: Clinton tops Christie in three major states
March 4th, 2014
08:51 AM ET
9 years ago

2016 polls: Clinton tops Christie in three major states

(CNN) - Hillary Clinton tops Chris Christie, Rand Paul and Paul Ryan in hypothetical showdowns in three states, according to new multi-state survey.

And a majority of voters questioned the polls by Roanoke College in Virginia, Rutgers-Eagleton in New Jersey and Siena College in New York state, say they have a favorable view of the former secretary of state and name her most often as the one eligible person that they'd most like to see as the next president.

[twitter-follow screen_name='politicalticker'][twitter-follow screen_name='psteinhausercnn']

The surveys indicate Clinton topping Christie, the two-term New Jersey governor, by 36 percentage points in New York, where she served eight years as a U.S. senator, by 8 points in Virginia, and by 10 points in Christie's home state, in possible 2016 presidential election matchups.

According to the polls, which were released Tuesday, Clinton leads Paul, the first-term senator from Kentucky by 43 points in New York, 14 points in Virginia and 29 points in New Jersey. And she's ahead of Ryan, the House Budget Chairman and 2012 GOP vice presidential nominee, by 37 points in the Empire State, 11 points in the Old Dominion, and 25 points in the Garden State.

New York and New Jersey are reliable states for Democrats in presidential elections, with Virginia a crucial battleground.
The survey indicates Clinton with a 64% favorable rating in New York, 59% in neighboring New Jersey, and 56% in Virginia.

"It's early, very early, but in these three states worth 56 of 270 electoral votes needed to win, Hillary Clinton is well-liked, the top choice by margins of four or five to one in New York and Virginia and named more than twice as often in Governor Christie's home state," said Don Levy, Director of the Siena College Research Institute.

"Head to head, she is untouchable in New York, has majorities in New Jersey and a lead in the potential battleground state of Virginia over not only two lesser known Republican hopefuls, Paul and Ryan, but over Christie who can no longer muster 50 percent favorable in any of the three states."

Clinton and Christie were basically all tied up in Virginia in a separate survey from Christopher Newport University that was released Monday.

Clinton's said she'll decide by the end of this year whether she makes a second bid for the White House. Virtually every poll indicates she'd become the overwhelming frontrunner for the Democratic nomination if she runs. Christie, Paul and Ryan are among a large group of Republicans who are considering 2016 campaigns for president.

Polling indicates no real frontrunner among the potential GOP contenders. Christie's poll numbers both nationally and in his home state have taken a hit because of the George Washington Bridge controversy that's ensnared his administration.

The next race for the White House officially doesn't get under way until after November's midterm elections. It's fair to say that at this point, such surveys are often heavily influenced by name recognition.

The Roanoke/Rutgers-Eagleton/Siena College Study was conducted jointly by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers, and the Siena College Research Institute and were conducted February 22-28, 2014. A total of 707 Virginia registered voters were questioned by telephone, with a sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. Seven-hundred and twenty-nine New Jersey registered voters were questioned by telephone, with a sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. And 814 New York residents were questioned by telephone, with a sampling error of 3.7 percentage points.

CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this story

Filed under: 2016 • Chris Christie • Hillary Clinton • New Jersey • New York • Paul Ryan • Polls • Rand Paul • Virginia
soundoff (149 Responses)
  1. JL

    Wow, a democrat leads in New York and New Jersey.... This is surprising to whom?

    March 4, 2014 12:12 pm at 12:12 pm |
  2. bricha

    Giuseppe my thought is we will never have a real election until we have a valid third party candidate. Right now we have two parties that want to stay in power. It doesn't matter if you vote Republican or Democrat you get the same thing. Point in case would be Obama's promise to end all of the wars and shut down Guantanamo bay, instead he kept the prison open, increased the amount of troops in Afghanistan for his entire first term, and expanded the use of drone strikes on sovereign soil. In my mind once we break the two party system we could finally break some of the gridlock in congress and get leaders that actually represent what the people want.

    March 4, 2014 12:14 pm at 12:14 pm |
  3. strangerq

    "It's fair to say that at this point, such surveys are often heavily influenced by name recognition."

    Thus the basis for said polling is what exactly?

    So there should be no polls until name recognition is better for the GOP?

    Isn't that kind of a catch 22?

    And since Ryan ran for VP so if he still isn't recognized by name, then he's a pretty lousy candidate isn't he?

    No excuse will change the outcome.

    March 4, 2014 12:16 pm at 12:16 pm |
  4. strangerq

    I practically don't care Benghazi, I cared Tora Bora and Bin Laden wanton escape known to rethuglicans.

    ^ Yup when GOP says Benghazi – just Tora Bora where they let Bin Laden escape.

    "I don't know where Bin Laden is, and I frankly don't care." – W Bush.

    March 4, 2014 12:19 pm at 12:19 pm |
  5. berrez

    thats what happens when your parties most notable accomplishment over the last ten years has been causing a credit score reduction for the US debt securities. With todays 24/7 news cycles and twitterverse enabled world the GOP is no longer going to be able to try to appeal to their shrinking and aging whacko right-wing base and then turn around and act like they arent whacko when they are trying to appeal to the majority of americans who are not super-religious and are actually literate, rational adults anymore. I can honestly see a 24+ year run with the DNC holding the white house as it stands now...

    March 4, 2014 12:20 pm at 12:20 pm |
  6. David

    if the republicans are foolish enough to run a GWB clone like Christie they deserve to lose.

    March 4, 2014 12:22 pm at 12:22 pm |
  7. Paulwisc

    It's way too early for a poll to have much meaning, but it's clear that the GOP is not any closer to having a viable candidate for 2016. In fact they've lost ground.

    March 4, 2014 12:27 pm at 12:27 pm |
  8. liberal disease

    she did a great job resetting relations with Russia!! she deserves it!! we have Putin in our back pocket, great job Hil
    next President, makes sense, why not be the leader of the free world?

    March 4, 2014 12:27 pm at 12:27 pm |
  9. randomguy9999

    not surprising at all.... Christie is over and being behind 10 points in the state you are the Governor of is a humiliating wake up call.

    Clinton is a slam dunk unless some major GOP surprise candidate pops up really soon... because this field of clowns can't even put up a significant fight.

    March 4, 2014 12:29 pm at 12:29 pm |
  10. Kathy, AZ

    BOO-HOO-HOO, GOP. And. you don't have even ONE candidate who can beat Hillary in 2016. Get ready for some more whining, people.

    March 4, 2014 12:29 pm at 12:29 pm |
  11. Chris-E...al

    Hillary is damaged goods! And dont have n0 new ideals ! Clintons. ha ha ha . Lunch anyone?

    March 4, 2014 12:30 pm at 12:30 pm |
  12. Roy

    It's too bad we have to have a "next president" each one screws the country a little harder how many more will it take to completely bring America down.

    March 4, 2014 12:30 pm at 12:30 pm |
  13. Rosa

    Yeah Hillary, You go girl!

    March 4, 2014 12:32 pm at 12:32 pm |
  14. Roy

    i think LARRY THE CABLE GUY should be our next president.

    March 4, 2014 12:33 pm at 12:33 pm |
  15. frank ford

    the election is years away who cares

    March 4, 2014 12:33 pm at 12:33 pm |
  16. mark

    You go Hillary bury the rest

    March 4, 2014 12:36 pm at 12:36 pm |
  17. Vader

    There is only one person that people need and should vote for: Sarah Palin!
    I threw up in my mouth a little when I read that.

    March 4, 2014 12:38 pm at 12:38 pm |
  18. ss

    Chris Christie? Seriously? Are the polls delusional?

    March 4, 2014 12:40 pm at 12:40 pm |
  19. Jim

    This posting vehicle means the posts are censored. Watch the tone when Disquss is used vs the posts fed to you when this mechanism is used.

    March 4, 2014 12:41 pm at 12:41 pm |
  20. ken

    The momentum keeps going. Going downhill for the GOP and rightfully so, it will take another election for them to prove they are for the people. As of now they are for the big corps and lobby groups.

    March 4, 2014 12:45 pm at 12:45 pm |
  21. Smcgov

    Hillary has lied under oath at least twice now. You have to be brain dead or a welfare recipient to think this woman is in any way qualified to run our nation. Ask yourself who all the donors are for the Clinton foundation, whose husband created the mortgage loan crisis, who decided we should support NAFTA which is KILLING our middle class. The Democrats have one trick and one trick only....tax tax tax...spend spend spend. It's like having 17 year olds running the country. Everybody's hero our current pres just got blackmailed by Putin for 1 BILLION dollars...

    March 4, 2014 12:45 pm at 12:45 pm |
  22. conoclast

    Your audience knows it when it sees it and is politely indulging your preoccupation with it. Now repeat after me so we all know we're on the same page:

    "2016 is still a LONG way off and polling at this point is utterly irrelevant."

    Thank you.

    March 4, 2014 12:45 pm at 12:45 pm |
  23. smartaz

    Of course, it would be painful for Christie to be on top.

    March 4, 2014 12:48 pm at 12:48 pm |
  24. Joe

    I heard that Hillary laundered a bunch of drug money from cocaine that her husband Bill imported in Mena, Arkansas, during the time he was governor there. Is that true?

    March 4, 2014 12:51 pm at 12:51 pm |
  25. YankeeInTheSouth

    Can the press PLEASE quit assuming that Christie will be the Republican nominee....you know what happens when you assume?

    March 4, 2014 12:53 pm at 12:53 pm |
1 2 3 4 5 6