CNN's GUT CHECK for March 12, 2014

CNN's GUT CHECK | for March 12, 2014 | 5 p.m.
– n. a pause to assess the state, progress or condition of the political news cycle

DEVELOPING… $1,700,000,000 PRICE TAG: Hillary Clinton supporters are bracing for an expensive presidential campaign should the former secretary of State run again for the Democratic nomination. Craig Smith, a senior adviser for Ready for Hillary, has made an “educated estimate” that a 2016 campaign could cost $1.7 billion including spending by outside groups, a source confirmed. – Rachel Streitfeld

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OBAMACARE HEADLINE THE ADMINISTRATION DOESN’T WANT … Sebelius: 2015 premiums will rise: “I think premiums are likely to go up but go up at a smaller pace than what we've seen since 2010, the increases are far less significant than they were prior to the passage of the Affordable Care Act.”

MIKE ROGERS ON CIA SNOOPING: “We're going to have to unwind this, find out what the truth is…If someone broke the law, they're going to have to pay the penalty,” Rogers (R-Michigan) told CNN’s Chris Cuomo.

HIGH PROFILE VACANCY: Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer won’t seek reelection…There were questions about whether she would be eligible for another term, but said it was time for her to pass the torch of leadership. As Arizona secretary of State, Brewer automatically succeeded Janet Napolitano as governor in 2009 when the Democrat became President Barack Obama's Homeland Security secretary. Brewer, a Republican, was elected in her own right in 2010 and is in the final year of that term. – CNN Political Unit

THE MOST IMPORTANT NUMBER IN 2014? …According to a new CNN Poll of Polls that averages four new national surveys that measure the President's approval rating, 44% of Americans say they approve of the job Obama's doing in the White House, with 52% giving him a thumbs down. – Paul Steinhauser

A STEP TOWARD 2016: Senate committee approves bill to let Rand Paul run for re-election and president in 2016
A revised bill that would allow U.S. Sen. Rand Paul to run for re-election and the presidency on the same Kentucky ballot in 2016 was cleared by a state Senate committee Wednesday, picking up one Democratic vote along the way…State law now says no candidate can appear on the same ballot twice in a general election. Primary elections appear to be excluded from the current law. - Sam Youngman

…Ryan did it: Under Wisconsin law, Rep. Paul Ryan was allowed to run for reelection to his eighth term in Wisconsin’s first congressional district while simultaneously serving on GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney's 2012 ticket - but if he won both contests he could only serve one office.

THE BUZZ: Perry tells Kimmel: 'I do interviews with a gun'

MARKET WATCH: U.S. stocks end little changed. Dow falls 12 points. Nasdaq rises 0.4%. S&P 500 inches higher.

the LEDE
Did you miss it?

Leading CNNPolitics: What we learned from Florida-13
Here's something shocking. Democrats and Republicans totally disagree about the significance of the GOP's victory in the first major competitive congressional ballot box test of 2014. Paul Steinhauser and Deirdre Walsh

Leading Drudge: Horror in Harlem
Two people are dead and at least 18 others are injured after a huge explosion collapsed two East Harlem buildings Wednesday morning where residents complained of smelling gas for weeks, witnesses and authorities said. – Joel Pavelski and Nora Barak for the New York Post

Leading HuffPo: Senators Okay With Spying On Citizens, But Outraged It Happened To Congress
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), a staunch defender of government surveillance of ordinary citizens, took to the Senate floor Tuesday with the stunning accusation that the Central Intelligence Agency may have violated federal law to spy on Congress. – Sabrina Siddiqui

Leading The New York Times: Obama Will Seek Broad Expansion of Overtime Pay
President Obama this week will seek to force American businesses to pay more overtime to millions of workers, the latest move by his administration to confront corporations that have had soaring profits even as wages have stagnated. –Michael D. Shear and Steven Greenhouse

HOT SOTS
The political bites of the day

–Florida… what does it all mean?–
Rep. Greg Walden, R-Oregon, and NRCC chairman: Tuesday’s win by Republican David Jolly “…was a referendum on the President's policies and on Obamacare that played out significantly to the disadvantage of Nancy Pelosi. And I think it sets the tone for what's coming in the fall…I think the message is that they've made some mistakes that are going to be pretty tough to overcome.”
House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio: “We had a big win last night in Florida and I would attribute the win to the fact that our candidate was focused on the issues that were most important to the people in Florida 13 and that's the economy and jobs because the American people are still asking the question where are the jobs?”

Dems spin it another way…
Rep. Steve Israel (D-New York) and DCCC chairman: “We're not going to be obsessed with this election because as even the Republicans said, it does not define the environment…We did an analysis. If this election had been in November, Alex Sink would have won, because it would have been a heavier turnout, not a March special and so this district will remain competitive. It will be in play in November, and we're going to apply some lessons learned in this specific district as we go forward.”
Rep. Lois Capps, D-California: “It's a Republican district, held for 40 years by a Republican and we came within two points of winning. You had a huge Republican advantage in a special election in a midterm year and that advantage will significantly diminish in November.

TRAIL TRIVIA
(Answer below)

Who was the first Director of Central Intelligence?

TOP TWEETS
What stopped us in 140 characters or less

Marc Levy (@timelywriter)
Bill Clinton will help Chelsea's mother-in-law in her hotly contested US House primary in Pa.'s 13th CD. Via @AP: http://bit.ly/1nMOBP4

Eric Weisbrod (@EricWeisbrod)
Bass to Obama: Which health plan should I BuyBuyBuy? MT@LanceBass: Entering White House to discuss health care reform pic.twitter.com/JLnOvbuK6a

Jim Acosta (@JimAcostaCNN)
Carney on Lance Bass visit: “We’re looking at every way possible” to get word out on Obamacare

The Fix (@TheFix)
Putin fav/unfav: 5/63. Ouch. http://ow.ly/uwf4F

Amy Walter (@amyewalter)
File under no one would have believed this in late 90's: NBC/WSJ poll shows B Clinton tied w/ Pope in approval ratings at 55%

Jeff Simon (@jjsimonWP)
National Cannabis Industry Association is holding a presser tomorrow. I’m gonna go. Expecting a great array of snacks

Stephanie Gallman (@sgallman)
AWKWARD: The teen who filed suit against her parents for tuition and living expenses last week, is back home

Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS)
House Rs finally make a move on immigration by… debating new measures to thwart #Obummer http://wapo.st/1kj5krP

TRIVIA ANSWER from @danadavidsen

Sidney William Souers was appointed by President Harry Truman as Director of Central Intelligence within the National Intelligence Authority. He served from January 23 to June 10, 1946.

Roscoe Henry Hillenkoetter was appointed by Truman in May of 1947 and reappointed as the first director under the new National Security Act in November of that year.

In December of 2004, President George W. Bush signed the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act - the most sweeping changes in America’s intelligence community in 50 years.

The act restructured the Intelligence Community by eliminating the Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) position and creating the dual positions of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (D/CIA).

Porter Goss, a former congressman from Florida, was the first to hold the position of Directors of the Central Intelligence Agency under Bush’s restructuring.

GUT CHECK WINNER’S CIRCLE
(why aren’t you in it)

Congrats to James Gray (@RealJamesGray) for correctly answering today’s Gut Check Trivia question.

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