May 1st, 2014
08:47 AM ET
9 years ago

2016 Poll: Clinton tops Bush in key state

(CNN) - Jeb Bush has a wide lead over other potential 2016 Republican White House contenders in the battle in Florida for GOP presidential nomination, according to a new poll of Sunshine State voters.

But a Quinnipiac University survey released Thursday also indicates Hillary Clinton topping the former two-term Florida governor in a hypothetical 2016 general election showdown in the nation's most populous swing state.

Clintons' relationship with media still testy after all these years

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According to the poll, 27% of Florida Republicans say they'd support Bush for the GOP nomination. That puts him far ahead of Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, at 14%, and first term Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 11%.

Seven percent say they'd back New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, with Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the 2012 GOP vice presidential nominee, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a 2008 Republican White House contender, each at 6%. No other potential candidate tested tops 4%, and 16% are undecided.

The poll indicates that Clinton, the former secretary of state, remains the overwhelming front runner for the Democratic nomination, as previous national and state polling has also indicated. Sixty-four percent of Florida Democrats say they'd back her, with Vice President Joe Biden at 11% and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (who says she's not running in 2016) at 6%. No other candidate tops 1% and 13% are undecided.

Americans agree with Barbara Bush

In a possible general election matchup, Clinton tops Bush 49%-41%. And she holds larger double-digit leads in matchups against Rubio, Paul, Christie, Ryan, Huckabee, and Cruz.

"With former Gov. Jeb Bush making noises about a possible 2016 candidacy, his support among Republicans in the Sunshine State appears to be solidifying. He still trails Hillary Clinton in a general election matchup, but he is the only potential GOP nominee who gets within single digits of her," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"For a potential Hillary Clinton candidacy in Florida, November 2016 can’t get here soon enough. Not only does she out point the entire field of potential Democratic wannabes for the party nomination put together, but her favorability numbers among all voters is near 60 percent," Brown added.

Among the Republicans tested, Bush (at 53%) had the highest favorable rating among Florida voters.

One caveat, of course, is that polls conducted so early in a presidential election cycle are often heavily influenced by name recognition, and tend to be more beauty contests than actual indicators of what may happens a year or two down the road.

Battleground Florida

With 29 electoral votes, Florida's the largest of what are considered the swing or battleground states in presidential contests. The state's controversial results in 2000 gave the election to then-Gov. George W. Bush of Texas over Vice President Al Gore.

Bush won the state by five percentage points over then-Sen. John Kerry in his 2004 re-election. But then-Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois topped Sen. John McCain of Arizaon in the Sunshine State by three points in the 2008 election. Obama narrowly carried the state in his 2012 re-election, edging out former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by just 65,000 votes.

Mitt Romney strikes again

CNN special coverage: 2014 midterm elections

The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted April 23-28, with 1,413 registered voters in Florida questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.



Filed under: 2016 • Florida • Hillary Clinton • Jeb Bush • Poll
soundoff (83 Responses)
  1. bombastus

    A few years back George Sr. was praising Jeb when he was leaving the Governor's office. Poor old George broke down and got quite emotional. I could not help pondering that George Sr. was thinking to himself: "I screwed up. The wrong son got to be President. It should have been Jeb and Jeb I'm sorry." Unfortunately for Jeb it's too late. He has been tainted by his brother who will go down in history as one of the worst Presidents ever. The country won't accept another Bush…..ever. On the hand, Jeb could do a lot of good things (just not as POTUS) and leave the country with a more positive attitude about the Bushes while his brother paints.

    May 1, 2014 12:19 pm at 12:19 pm |
  2. Lizzie

    Dominican mama 4 Obama Record stock markets and 401K's.
    -- yes, those evil corporations are making money and the stocks go up.

    May 1, 2014 12:19 pm at 12:19 pm |
  3. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    tom l

    I'm sorry but I meant it. It is a corrupt administration. So was Bush's. They have done things to deceive us.
    I'm good with agreeing to disagree, and in that vein let me just say that there is are lies and then there are lies.
    You are not going to find an administration anywhere that is completely truthful with the people of it's country. That's a given fact.
    Mistakes are going to be made and, yes, lies will be told.
    The motivation behind the lie is the big differentiator for me.
    Are you lying to protect me or others?
    Or are you lying at my expense and the expense of the country for personal profit or reasons that have nothing to do with furthering the common good?
    These are important distinctions for me.
    There are many reasons why we don't need to know everything or be told everything.
    Nobody is perfect. We all lie.
    The motivation for what may be perceived as lying by some is important to me, and before I label any administration as corrupt I'd like to know what motivated them to "deceive" me, if in fact I was deceived.
    It should be noted here that your boy Issa who thinks this administration is more corrupt than even you do has had no success in finding proof of said corruption.
    God knows he's tried, bless his heart.

    May 1, 2014 12:21 pm at 12:21 pm |
  4. James

    Unless a photo surfaces of Hilary embracing Donald Sterling, she will be the next President of the United States

    May 1, 2014 12:24 pm at 12:24 pm |
  5. frank

    one word for Hillary Benghazi!

    May 1, 2014 12:25 pm at 12:25 pm |
  6. Sniffit

    "FOXbot talking points..."

    You see their most recent shenanigans? So, they get an editor from Scientific American to go on Faux and Fiends to talk about scientific innovation to be expected in the coming years, and when he indicates that he thinks the biggest area to look for it is with respect to climate change, they explicitly tell him he can't talk about climate change. AT ALL. He reveals this and some other interesting tidbits after the interview (including the makeup girl telling him Flight 370 is on a military base somewhere), because it was so clearly biased and ridiculous for them to do that to him. Now, Faux and Fiends, in typical conservative tantrum fashion, attacked him hardcore this morning (ironically calling him a "coward" despite their own cowardly suppression of any talk about climate change) and he's being deluged with hate mail and hate-tweets. Lesson: don't tell conservatives the truth if it's not what they want to hear, because if you do, they will tantrum all over your face.

    May 1, 2014 12:27 pm at 12:27 pm |
  7. greasemonkey

    Looks like all the conservatives are going to have to get used to saying "President Clinton" again........

    May 1, 2014 12:31 pm at 12:31 pm |
  8. Ace


    A Hillary presidency after 8 years of Obama and you can kiss this country goodbye. Third world here we come.

    I wonder why Dean is doing so poorly when many of us are thriving?

    May 1, 2014 12:31 pm at 12:31 pm |
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