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2016 Poll: Clinton tops Bush in key state

(CNN) - Jeb Bush has a wide lead over other potential 2016 Republican White House contenders in the battle in Florida for GOP presidential nomination, according to a new poll of Sunshine State voters.

But a Quinnipiac University survey released Thursday also indicates Hillary Clinton topping the former two-term Florida governor in a hypothetical 2016 general election showdown in the nation's most populous swing state.

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According to the poll, 27% of Florida Republicans say they'd support Bush for the GOP nomination. That puts him far ahead of Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, at 14%, and first term Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 11%.

Seven percent say they'd back New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, with Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the 2012 GOP vice presidential nominee, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a 2008 Republican White House contender, each at 6%. No other potential candidate tested tops 4%, and 16% are undecided.

The poll indicates that Clinton, the former secretary of state, remains the overwhelming front runner for the Democratic nomination, as previous national and state polling has also indicated. Sixty-four percent of Florida Democrats say they'd back her, with Vice President Joe Biden at 11% and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (who says she's not running in 2016) at 6%. No other candidate tops 1% and 13% are undecided.

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In a possible general election matchup, Clinton tops Bush 49%-41%. And she holds larger double-digit leads in matchups against Rubio, Paul, Christie, Ryan, Huckabee, and Cruz.

"With former Gov. Jeb Bush making noises about a possible 2016 candidacy, his support among Republicans in the Sunshine State appears to be solidifying. He still trails Hillary Clinton in a general election matchup, but he is the only potential GOP nominee who gets within single digits of her," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"For a potential Hillary Clinton candidacy in Florida, November 2016 can’t get here soon enough. Not only does she out point the entire field of potential Democratic wannabes for the party nomination put together, but her favorability numbers among all voters is near 60 percent," Brown added.

Among the Republicans tested, Bush (at 53%) had the highest favorable rating among Florida voters.

One caveat, of course, is that polls conducted so early in a presidential election cycle are often heavily influenced by name recognition, and tend to be more beauty contests than actual indicators of what may happens a year or two down the road.

Battleground Florida

With 29 electoral votes, Florida's the largest of what are considered the swing or battleground states in presidential contests. The state's controversial results in 2000 gave the election to then-Gov. George W. Bush of Texas over Vice President Al Gore.

Bush won the state by five percentage points over then-Sen. John Kerry in his 2004 re-election. But then-Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois topped Sen. John McCain of Arizaon in the Sunshine State by three points in the 2008 election. Obama narrowly carried the state in his 2012 re-election, edging out former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by just 65,000 votes.

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The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted April 23-28, with 1,413 registered voters in Florida questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.