May 1st, 2014
08:47 AM ET
8 years ago

2016 Poll: Clinton tops Bush in key state

(CNN) - Jeb Bush has a wide lead over other potential 2016 Republican White House contenders in the battle in Florida for GOP presidential nomination, according to a new poll of Sunshine State voters.

But a Quinnipiac University survey released Thursday also indicates Hillary Clinton topping the former two-term Florida governor in a hypothetical 2016 general election showdown in the nation's most populous swing state.

Clintons' relationship with media still testy after all these years

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According to the poll, 27% of Florida Republicans say they'd support Bush for the GOP nomination. That puts him far ahead of Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, at 14%, and first term Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 11%.

Seven percent say they'd back New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, with Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the 2012 GOP vice presidential nominee, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, a 2008 Republican White House contender, each at 6%. No other potential candidate tested tops 4%, and 16% are undecided.

The poll indicates that Clinton, the former secretary of state, remains the overwhelming front runner for the Democratic nomination, as previous national and state polling has also indicated. Sixty-four percent of Florida Democrats say they'd back her, with Vice President Joe Biden at 11% and Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts (who says she's not running in 2016) at 6%. No other candidate tops 1% and 13% are undecided.

Americans agree with Barbara Bush

In a possible general election matchup, Clinton tops Bush 49%-41%. And she holds larger double-digit leads in matchups against Rubio, Paul, Christie, Ryan, Huckabee, and Cruz.

"With former Gov. Jeb Bush making noises about a possible 2016 candidacy, his support among Republicans in the Sunshine State appears to be solidifying. He still trails Hillary Clinton in a general election matchup, but he is the only potential GOP nominee who gets within single digits of her," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"For a potential Hillary Clinton candidacy in Florida, November 2016 can’t get here soon enough. Not only does she out point the entire field of potential Democratic wannabes for the party nomination put together, but her favorability numbers among all voters is near 60 percent," Brown added.

Among the Republicans tested, Bush (at 53%) had the highest favorable rating among Florida voters.

One caveat, of course, is that polls conducted so early in a presidential election cycle are often heavily influenced by name recognition, and tend to be more beauty contests than actual indicators of what may happens a year or two down the road.

Battleground Florida

With 29 electoral votes, Florida's the largest of what are considered the swing or battleground states in presidential contests. The state's controversial results in 2000 gave the election to then-Gov. George W. Bush of Texas over Vice President Al Gore.

Bush won the state by five percentage points over then-Sen. John Kerry in his 2004 re-election. But then-Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois topped Sen. John McCain of Arizaon in the Sunshine State by three points in the 2008 election. Obama narrowly carried the state in his 2012 re-election, edging out former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by just 65,000 votes.

Mitt Romney strikes again

CNN special coverage: 2014 midterm elections

The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted April 23-28, with 1,413 registered voters in Florida questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.



Filed under: 2016 • Florida • Hillary Clinton • Jeb Bush • Poll
soundoff (83 Responses)
  1. luke,az

    I want Elizabeth Warren to run for President. Hillary is not presidential material.

    May 1, 2014 10:18 am at 10:18 am |
  2. J Anthony

    @Tom I: yes, we've all bee wronged by both the parties. The thing is, rightwingers are politicizing the Benghazi incident to the Nth degree and it is not doing any good for anyone. There have been many other similar tragedies under past presidents, and they were treated as footnotes by the right. But for some reason Benghazi will reveal the ultimate truth of all things?

    May 1, 2014 10:19 am at 10:19 am |
  3. Lynda/Minnesota

    "Wouldn't that be a sore loser as well to continue to harp on settled issues?"

    First ask yourself that question before you harp on (and on and on) others' opinions.

    May 1, 2014 10:22 am at 10:22 am |
  4. Robert

    I doubt if Jeb would get close to what this poll says in Florida. Those of us that watched the corrupt shenanigans Jeb as Governor did to get his brother President in 2000 will never vote for him. I cannot even say elected since the right-wing Supreme Court decided it. If he runs his actions will come back to haunt him in Florida. Also this year, we will be getting rid of our crooked Tea Party Governor Rick Scott and other members of the GOP. In a short time, Florida will be a reliably blue state.

    May 1, 2014 10:24 am at 10:24 am |
  5. The Real Tom Paine

    @ tom l, speaking of harping on settled issues, it would appear as though you are doing that with Benghazi. Now, are there any other conspiracies you need to obcess about? How about the Lindbergh baby or the Freemasons controlling everything? Maybe you and Gundy can whine about a century of liberal control, and Nanny state, etc. Seems as though that is all you seem to have left in the tank these days. People who insist on living in an alternate reality, are, well, crazy, and you are veering off in that direction. You seem to trust corporations whom you can't change more than the government you elect: why are your Libertarian oligarchs beyond scrutiny, yet you want national security decisions to be made in full view of the public? Do you really think that the right way to keep us safe, and are you so naive as to think our enemies will be so impressed by Libertarian virtue that they will leave us alone?

    May 1, 2014 10:25 am at 10:25 am |
  6. Denise

    Your hero, Boss Hogg, should have moved on from the drugs and donuts years ago.....It's not healthy either!

    May 1, 2014 10:31 am at 10:31 am |
  7. blome Sarah blome

    Republicans in 2016 = Doomed

    May 1, 2014 10:37 am at 10:37 am |
  8. Robert

    With the GOP "war on women" continuing unabated it won't surprise me if Hillary gets 80% 0f the female vote. I can just see two Tea Party types going to the polls and the white male votes for a GOP candidate and in the sanctity of the voting booth his wife votes for Hillary and the husband will never know. Gender over politics.

    May 1, 2014 10:38 am at 10:38 am |
  9. Rick McDaniel

    More Clinton propaganda from CNN.

    May 1, 2014 10:40 am at 10:40 am |
  10. ThinkAgain - Don't like Congress? Get rid of the repub/tea bag majority.

    Jeb is an empty suit, waiting for the hand of the koch brothers and karl rove to be stuck up his bum so he can be their next puppet.

    May 1, 2014 10:40 am at 10:40 am |
  11. Dems in PA

    Clinton and Bush are both losers, we going to need a real business person, real leader to fix the mess created by this version of the Democratic Party and Obama over the last 6 years.

    May 1, 2014 10:45 am at 10:45 am |
  12. Jabbadahut

    Robert: Only in your wildest dream!

    May 1, 2014 10:51 am at 10:51 am |
  13. rs

    Tom l
    Whatever makes you feel better, buddy. If you're cool with being lied to then that's on you
    Gee, Tom I, how do I thank you. That clarity you possess of ALWAYS seeing the truth and being forever correct on each and every single issue the Right puts forth is just a fantastic gift- especially as you set out each and every day telling us just how corrupt and wrong "our gang" really is.

    Everyday, you parrot out a new RW talking point (some quite crazy like the Bundy issue). Seriously- what about Mr. Bundy- did that little gaffe resonate with you at all- or did you really just drop that in leu of the next Benghazi lie? Who lied there Tom? Hannity? Rush? The host of GOPpers in Congress who supported Bundy? Bundy himself?

    You keep distilling all political news to the discovery that politicians are not always truthful, but you only talk about it when it happens on the Left, then trumpet it as some bright discovery. For you it is as if the Right never lies- even when the evidence is simply overwhelming. Worse is their politicalization of lies. In short, this means Tom, that despite your protests, and your "libertarian" proclamations, you are little better that a member of the "Right Gang" (your term). You, are a partisan, no different from others posting here, you might as well be honest on that front. Me, I've been around the block a couple of times, politicians lie,I expect that, and I find that people who trust them without any verification are fools. I suppose its a matter of degrees and the game playing and the apparent delusion the Right employs. From that standpoint the GOP has simply perfected the lie as a primary means of communication.

    As far as the Benghazi situation- train your eyes over to CBS, the WP or a whole host of other news outlets- maybe draw your own conclusion. Who knows, it might be fun!

    May 1, 2014 10:51 am at 10:51 am |
  14. The Real Tom Paine

    @ Tom l, since you are so concerned about Politicians lying, I would suggest you stop your non-stop blather about the Paul dynasty. Ron and Rand have both lied repeatedly in their public lives, whether its about racist statements in Ron's old newsletter that he claimed he personally edited, or the plagiarism incident with Paul, or the Southern Avenger crap he tried to pull, or any number of painful twists on the truth. Human beings make mistakes, sometimes with fatal consequences, and to go into a situation with the conclusion already reached and then attempting to work backwards is the sign of a dangerously lazy mind.

    May 1, 2014 10:51 am at 10:51 am |
  15. Jabbadahut

    ThinkAgain – Don't like Congress? Get rid of the repub/tea bag majority: I say the same thing about the dems in the senate.

    May 1, 2014 10:53 am at 10:53 am |
  16. Gurgyl

    -–no new Bush, no new Laden. God bless!!

    May 1, 2014 10:54 am at 10:54 am |
  17. The Real Tom Paine

    @ Dems in PA, whom do you suggest? The Donald? How about Sterling? Why not the Kochs? Adam Smith made it very clear in " The Wealth of Nations" that business people could not be trusted to run a country because they would confuse their interests with those of the nation. None of the GOP celebrities has the experience or the understanding to run this country.

    May 1, 2014 10:55 am at 10:55 am |
  18. Rudy NYC

    Tom l

    Your statement just proves that there is no difference today between the opposition of Obama and the opposition of Bush. Never mind the fact that there were several news outlets that all looked into this and not one found it to be the other way. As you guys love to say MoveOn
    What statement is that? Do you actually think I opposed Bush's election? Gore told people to accept the outcome at the time.

    You're being a demagogue again. Even the folks who felt Bush stole the election, you did not seem them holding rallies screaming for his resignation like we have seen the Tea Party do time and time again. You don't fool me one bit.

    May 1, 2014 10:55 am at 10:55 am |
  19. Thomas

    Elizabeth Warren would make a better president , yet she would lose .

    Hillary has been in the on deck circle for 8 years , she has the money and knows the game .

    May 1, 2014 11:00 am at 11:00 am |
  20. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    tom l

    @Wake Up,

    I'm truly sorry that you have so much anger towards this nation now. I know you feel that Obama has been slighted and you mention that the GOP is a bunch of sore losers but I want you to remember that to this day, and even in a post here, people complain about how Bush never won the election. Wouldn't that be a sore loser as well to continue to harp on settled issues?
    I read WUP's! post and I didn't see where she stated that she was angry at this nation tom l, so that would be you misrepresenting what WUP said in order to set the stage for your narrative.
    Regarding "harping about settled issues" as it pertains to Bush vs. Gore: Gore was robbed. Cheated.
    But you know about the recount, brother Jeb, Supreme Court, stop the count. No need to rehash.
    When someone is cheated they can talk about it until the cows come home.
    Bricks and apples comparisons tom l.

    May 1, 2014 11:03 am at 11:03 am |
  21. tom l

    Let's not veer off course and talk about Bush. Let's talk about Benghazi. For over a year you have said that they didn't lie to us. You were adamant that they were being honest and open. Then this email comes out (which was withheld from the actual investigation – things that make you go hmmmm) and now the tagline is that it was in the interest of national security. We have been mocked and ridiculed for a year that Benghazi was nothing and now we find out they did indeed lie to us and now the position you take that in the matter of "national security" it's ok to lie to us. But the administration is now saying that this email wasn't about Benghazi anyways. So you really believe that? Why are you so apt to support the administration and find ways to back them when they twist and change their story.

    And, honestly, do you really believe that the now uncovered email was not about Benghazi as the administration is telling us?

    I'm not crazy and this isn't a conspiracy. This is just a good, old fashioned cover up to try and not get out information at a time when the election was really heating. Just try and look at it objectively rather than try and say what a crazy nutso libertarian ideologue that I am....

    May 1, 2014 11:07 am at 11:07 am |
  22. The Real Tom Paine

    For people like Tom l, the world is a frightening place, filled with people trying to take from them and mooch off of them. There is no joy, there is no beauty, there is only a constant stream of people attempting to take their money for things that don't immediately benefit them. There is no sense of community, country, or world: its all about them. The individual is all. Once in a while, they find people who agree with them on something, or something they feel that others should be in agreement with them, so they relentlessly hound and attack others, attempting to browbeat them into submission. There is no tolerance, and when people push back, their persecution complex begins. " I understand you better than you understand me/us" becomes the refrain, over and over again. This pushes them into taking more extreme positions, despite others warning him/her/them that they are chugging of the tracks into Whackyland. Despite their professed tolerance, they really are not tolerant at all, using their association with people of differing beliefs as a cover and/or excuse to continue their attempts to evangelize and browbeat others into accepting his/her viewpoint.

    Is this accurate? Did I miss anything?

    May 1, 2014 11:11 am at 11:11 am |
  23. Dominican mama 4 Obama

    tom l

    Let's not veer off course and talk about Bush. Let's talk about Benghazi.
    You introduced the Bush element....and let's NOT talk about Benghazi.
    Benghazi IS a settled issue no matter how much you all keep tryint to defibrillate it.
    Take your own advice tom l and stop harping and obsessing on matters that have been settled.

    May 1, 2014 11:16 am at 11:16 am |
  24. sly

    Hillary Clinton was the most widely respected Secretary of State in decades. She will make a good President.

    These are good times for America – the 1st President in 50 years to not start a war. Record stock markets and 401K's. No foreign terrorist attacks.

    Good times. Enjoy them.

    May 1, 2014 11:19 am at 11:19 am |
  25. Lynda/Minnesota

    "Why are you so apt to support the administration and find ways to back them when they twist and change their story."

    You are on a fool's errand if you think the general public really cares one way or another, Tom. All this back and forth of "oh but its OK when so and so does it but not OK when so and so does it?" is nothing more than vented petulance rearing itself to suit your need for attention.

    The narrative ended and the majority of folks have moved on (in more ways than just Benghazi).

    May 1, 2014 11:20 am at 11:20 am |
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