2016 poll: Clinton's lead shrinks in key state
May 15th, 2014
08:55 AM ET
9 years ago

2016 poll: Clinton's lead shrinks in key state

(CNN) - She's still ahead of the competition, but a new poll in an important presidential battleground state indicates that Hillary Clinton's numbers have slightly deteriorated over the past couple of months.

According to a Quinnipiac University survey of Ohio voters, Clinton remains in the lead over eight potential Republican opponents in hypothetical 2016 presidential election showdowns, but her margins have shrunk.

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"Her lead over most of them has dropped considerably since Quinnipiac University surveyed Ohio voters in February," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "Still Ms. Clinton has the best favorability rating of the group."

The former secretary of state, senator from New York and first lady, has said she'll decide by the end of the year if she'll launch a second bid for the White House. And most of the potential GOP presidential candidates questioned in the survey have also indicated they'll make their decisions sometime after November's midterm elections.

The poll, released Thursday, indicates Clinton leading former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush 48%-39% among registered voters in Ohio. That's down from a 51%-36% lead in February. Clinton leads Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida 47%-40%, down from 50%-36% three months ago. And she tops Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky 49%-41%, down from 51%-38%.

According to the survey, Clinton's ahead of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie 46%-38%, down from 49%-36% in February. She's ahead of Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin 48%-41%. That's slightly down from her 49%-40% advantage over the 2012 GOP vice presidential nominee three months ago. And she tops Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas 51%-37%, down from 51%-34%.

And Clinton has a 47%-42% edge in Ohio over the state's governor, John Kasich, down from 51%-39% in February. She also has a 49%-41% lead over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. The 2008 Republican presidential candidate was not tested in Quinnipiac's February poll.

Ohio plays a crucial role in campaign politics. It's a must win battleground state in presidential elections and was the state that put George W. Bush over the top in his 2004 re-election. In modern times, no Republican has ever been elected to the White House without carrying the Buckeye State.

The slight deterioration of Clinton's lead in Ohio matchups is opposite of what Quinnipiac polling found in Florida, another crucial battleground state. A Quinnipiac poll conducted in the Sunshine State earlier this month indicated Clinton's leads over Bush, Rubio, Paul, Christie, Ryan and Cruz had slightly increased since the beginning of the year.

A national survey conducted earlier this month indicated that Clinton was overwhelming frontrunner in the race for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, but that her support had slightly deteriorated since the beginning of the year.

According to the CNN/ORC International poll, 64% of Democrats and independents who lean towards the party said they most likely would support Clinton, down six percentage points from January, when seven in ten said they'd back Clinton. Nineteen percent said they are likely to support a Democratic presidential candidate who's more conservative than Clinton, up four points from January, with 13% saying they'd back a candidate more liberal than Clinton, up three points from the beginning of the year.

One caveat: With the start of the 2016 primary and caucus calendar still more than a year and a half away, polls at this early stage in a presidential cycle are often influenced by name recognition.

According to the Quinnipiac poll, Buckeye state voters have a 53%-43% favorable opinion of Clinton. Her numbers on this question are basically unchanged from last June. Favorite son Kasich stands at 47% favorable and 29% unfavorable. The ratings for the other possible 2016 Republican White House hopefuls are: Bush (32%-38%); Christie (36%-36%); Paul (38%-29%); Cruz (24%-26%); Huckabee (37%-31%); Ryan (39%-31%); and Rubio (31%-19%).

As for the current resident in the White House, 39% of Ohio voters say they approve of the job President Barack Obama's doing, with 58% saying they disapprove. The President stood at 40%-55% in February.

The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted May 7-12, with 1,174 registered voters in Ohio questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

Filed under: 2016 • Hillary Clinton • Ohio • Poll
soundoff (19 Responses)
  1. Dar

    "but her margins have shrunk"
    It is hard to keep lie's straight when you tell so many. The lie's are starting to catch up to her!

    May 15, 2014 09:02 am at 9:02 am |
  2. Marie MD

    Ohio is like the Koch brothers. One state runs the country? Get out and vote the teaklans and the obstructionist repug thugs out!

    May 15, 2014 09:16 am at 9:16 am |
  3. Rudy NYC

    Favorite son Kasich stands at 47% favorable and 29% unfavorable.
    Have Ohioans forgotten what Kasich had tried to do their unions? After the law the he signed was overturned in a referendum, Kasich lamented, "It was too soon."

    Have Ohioans forgotten what Kasich and the Republicans have been doing to erode their voting rights?

    May 15, 2014 09:20 am at 9:20 am |
  4. Wake Up People! Many Rivers to cross.....

    Keep up the good work Rover!!! Just remember she's still head and shoulders over any of the do nothing GOP Klan.

    May 15, 2014 09:23 am at 9:23 am |
  5. Miami Mike

    Just suspend the law that states that you must be a US citizen to vote and the promise amnesty with tax-paid education, tax-paid healthcare, tax-paid food and shelter (nothing is real free). Dems are looking out for illegal immigrants rather than US citizens anyways.
    Or you can always follow Melowese Richardson's example... Vote early. Vote Often.

    May 15, 2014 09:29 am at 9:29 am |
  6. Anonymous

    Here comes cnn with their psychology mumbo.jumbo. what one state has to do with the other 49 states. Did her numbers dwindle in those other states or did it expand. Since numbers moves around. Come back to me in a year or so when a trend is brewing otherwise stop the fake crisis paranoya crap.

    May 15, 2014 09:30 am at 9:30 am |
  7. Wake Up People! Many Rivers to cross.....

    Benghazi!! Booga booga booga!


    May 15, 2014 09:32 am at 9:32 am |
  8. Lynda/Minnesota

    "One caveat: With the start of the 2016 primary and caucus calendar still more than a year and a half away, polls at this early stage in a presidential cycle are often influenced by name recognition."

    It will be interesting watching the GOP decide if Jeb is the best candidate overall to beat Hillary. At this point (and with much fanfare) the MSM is promoting Jeb much in the same manner they promoted President Mittens.

    Jeb Bush Has The Momentum 2016

    Mr. Ben Ghazi? Not so much.

    May 15, 2014 09:32 am at 9:32 am |
  9. Jim Russell

    The Republican Party's maniacal "just say no to everything" constant roadblock is critically injuring America. While America is held idle our world competitors rush ahead and past. The clearest result of this Republican barricade to national progress is our shocking loss to China from the #1 world economy to #2. The Republican Party has become the Party of the spiteful, unreasonable, and significantly delusional.

    May 15, 2014 09:38 am at 9:38 am |
  10. Peace

    CNN, can you please report something which makes sense or are you pretending to have a blind eye. According to this polls, Hillary's number has gone down, it has also gone down to the candidate of the opposition side at the same time. In simple Maths or understanding, NOTHING has changed at all.

    May 15, 2014 09:51 am at 9:51 am |
  11. rightonrush

    I'm already sick of polls and the hype. For Christ sake, she hasn't even said she was running.

    May 15, 2014 09:55 am at 9:55 am |
  12. Winning

    LOL the lead drops are all nearly within the margin of error. At best she's lost a 10th of a percent of support in some of the polls. It is completely meaningless. Why even publish this story? I'm not a huge Clinton fan, but this headline seeks to show something that the data does not support.

    May 15, 2014 10:03 am at 10:03 am |
  13. Winston Smith

    Listening to whom, and when. This kind of journalism is mindless. Why do we (We The People), get bombarded on a daily basis with reporting that has one agenda, and that agenda is to try to sway elections. It's sickening to watch this process, when we advertise ourselves as a democracy.

    May 15, 2014 10:04 am at 10:04 am |
  14. rs

    Gee, does anyone now question the rationale for the GOP's battery of recent lies regarding Ms. Clinton? The GOP clearly cannot engage the Democrats on any issue of substance, so they trot out Mr. Rove. The Right of the modern age: policy-less, and morality-free.

    May 15, 2014 10:07 am at 10:07 am |
  15. Tampa Tim

    Try as they may, the Koch brothers do not have enough money to make any republican competitive to beat Hillary.

    May 15, 2014 10:08 am at 10:08 am |
  16. Lizzie

    Love the polls, today she is down, tomorrow she will be up.

    May 15, 2014 10:18 am at 10:18 am |
  17. Dems in PA

    It’s not hard to believe the poll numbers are falling given the scandals and outright cover ups that have taken place by the Democratic Party over the last 6 years. The American public / voters are tired of being lied too and it’s time for those in the Democratic Party to be held accountable.

    May 15, 2014 10:20 am at 10:20 am |
  18. jinx9to88

    BENGHAZI, BENGHAZI, BENGHAZI. GOP give me a break.

    May 15, 2014 10:33 am at 10:33 am |
  19. Silence DoGood

    So after all the Rush lies and Rove lies and conspiracy theories and Koch money, she has dropped a few points.
    Not much impact for all that effort and hate.

    May 15, 2014 10:49 am at 10:49 am |