CNN/ORC Poll: Clinton 2016 victory a sure thing?
June 16th, 2014
04:00 PM ET
7 years ago

CNN/ORC Poll: Clinton 2016 victory a sure thing?

What do you want to ask Hillary Clinton? Send your questions here and CNN Chief International Correspondent Christiane Amanpour might ask it during CNN's town hall meeting with Clinton at 5 p.m. ET Tuesday at the Newseum in Washington.

Washington (CNN) - Just how inevitable is a Hillary Clinton victory in 2016?

More than three-quarters of all Americans predict that Clinton will win the Democratic nomination if she runs for the White House, and two-thirds say she is likely to be the next president if she is the party's standard-bearer in 2016, according to a new CNN/ORC International poll.

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The poll, released Monday, indicates that 44% say it's very likely the former secretary of state wins her party's presidential nomination if she decides to make another bid for the White House. Another 34% say it's somewhat likely she'll capture the Democratic nomination, and just over one in five say it's not likely she'll win.

Poll: Clinton tops Obama on every issue

More than nine in 10 Democrats, nearly three-quarters of independents and even six in 10 Republicans predict that Clinton will win the nomination if she launches another campaign. In an interview last week, Clinton said she would announce her decision regarding a second White House run sometime early next year.

If she captures her party's nomination, just over three in 10 Americans say it's very likely she'll win the White House in 2016, with 36% saying it's somewhat likely, and 31% saying it's not likely.

How enthusiastic are Democrats about Clinton as nominee?

Eighty-two percent of Democrats, two-thirds of independents, and even 51% of Republicans say that if Clinton becomes her party's nominee, she'll win the presidency.

There's one caveat.

"We've gone down this path before. In 2008, 74% said that she would win the White House if she captured the Democratic nomination, but the then-senator from New York never made it that far," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

The poll was conducted for CNN by ORC International May 29-June 1, before the rollout of Clinton's new memoir, "Hard Choices." In the survey, 1,003 adults nationwide were questioned by telephone. The poll's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.

soundoff (123 Responses)
  1. Ron

    Among the entire sample,
    30% described themselves as Democrats, 23% described themselves as Republicans, and 47% described themselves as
    Independents or members of another party. Not really a fair sampling, I would say.

    June 16, 2014 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  2. Big_D

    I don't like her as President. We need fewer royals. I want Elizabeth Warren.

    June 16, 2014 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |

    Who does Washington think you democrats are anyway ?

    June 16, 2014 04:42 pm at 4:42 pm |
  4. Wes

    hillary is a disaster.

    June 16, 2014 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  5. cnet

    Lol. Two years out from election and people have already made up their mind who they're going to vote for? We don't even know who the candidates are, their qualifications, their platforms, their convictions...

    This is what's wrong with America. This isn't American Idol...this is the person who's going to run our country....we've selected poorly over the past few presidents.

    June 16, 2014 04:44 pm at 4:44 pm |
  6. maggiwood

    I have yet to even see a viable option for the gop! Every candidate has said something racist, anti-Semitic, misogynist, or hateful to some all non-white male group!

    June 16, 2014 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  7. readerpan

    Dick Cheney wouldn't look like Gandhi if he was compared to Satan.

    June 16, 2014 04:45 pm at 4:45 pm |
  8. Lardoggy

    Hillary won already,wow,I thought the election was in Nov.2016?Lots of funny people in america now days.

    June 16, 2014 04:47 pm at 4:47 pm |
  9. Lee Beacham

    The one thing the Democrats don't want.......A race before the election. Just anoint her. But then we wouldn't need the rest of the Government, would we. As queen, she could rule much more efficiently. NPR will be toast, though.

    June 16, 2014 04:49 pm at 4:49 pm |
  10. Come on!

    Why are we worrying about this now? Is there some deficiency in news going on right now where we have to propel assumptions 2 years into the future. CNN I remember when you posted decent articles instead of "This Week's Best Selfie's". Very informative you sad sad sell-outs.

    June 16, 2014 04:50 pm at 4:50 pm |
  11. jojo

    Wow! after such a wonderful Obama presidency and you dems think Hillary is going to win. I cannot believe anyone could stand another 4-8 years of dem rule.

    June 16, 2014 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  12. T. Storm

    Hopefully the prediction will be just as bad as the weather forecasters were 40- 50 yrs ago. We don't need any more liberal policies.

    June 16, 2014 04:51 pm at 4:51 pm |
  13. KevininAtlanta

    If I vote for Hilary, it will be for the same reason I voted for Obama. The republicans will have absolutely no viable candidates and I'll simply be voting for the lesser of two evils. I actually dread voting now. Neither party represents my interests and I'm feeling more and more isolated from the political spectrum on a daily basis.

    We need a 3rd party...and the Tea Party doesn't count...

    June 16, 2014 04:52 pm at 4:52 pm |
  14. Bill

    She has my vote if she runs. Winning the actual election with the republican and tea party candidates will matter on who she picks as her running mate, no pun intended.

    June 16, 2014 04:52 pm at 4:52 pm |
  15. PaulCat

    I will make my donation as soon as I hear she's going to run!

    June 16, 2014 04:52 pm at 4:52 pm |
  16. underwaterops

    Yeah. I heard that in 2008, then she lost the primary. So let's wait and see a bit.
    I see this as another mystery candidate surprise primary for both parties.

    June 16, 2014 04:53 pm at 4:53 pm |
  17. Bill

    I just wish I were as broke as Hilary. She is so in touch with the average American.

    June 16, 2014 04:54 pm at 4:54 pm |
  18. Ron

    Not a chance in the world.... Everyone will remember the "at this point, what difference does it make" after good americans died defending the Benghazi embassy. The 3:00 call came and she chose not to answer

    June 16, 2014 04:54 pm at 4:54 pm |
  19. roger

    I don't think people realize how much dirt can be thrown at Hillary. She has a lot of baggage from when her husband was president not to mention the screw ups she has had as Secretary of State. The Hillary supporters thought she was a shoe in in 2008 too.

    June 16, 2014 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  20. J.S.

    keep dreaming

    June 16, 2014 04:55 pm at 4:55 pm |
  21. stevie steve

    It really says something about American politics that Hilary Clinton is the default choice to win 2016..... We're so screwed.

    June 16, 2014 04:56 pm at 4:56 pm |
  22. Sniffit

    "CNN/ORC Poll: Clinton 2016 victory a sure thing?" you're just poking the GOP/Teatroll hive, CNN. The GOP/Teatrolls are inconsolable and raving already. No need to poke the hive and drive them into more of a frenzy with bait like that. Geesh. Grow up.

    June 16, 2014 04:57 pm at 4:57 pm |
  23. Wilson

    We would have been better off if she got in the last time. But then anyone looks good after the community organizer.

    June 16, 2014 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  24. Rick McDaniel

    I don't think she can even win the primary, and the general election would still be in doubt if she does.

    June 16, 2014 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
  25. sol

    We all would win if she doesn;t run

    June 16, 2014 04:58 pm at 4:58 pm |
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