CNN/ORC Poll: Clinton 2016 victory a sure thing?
June 16th, 2014
04:00 PM ET
6 years ago

CNN/ORC Poll: Clinton 2016 victory a sure thing?

What do you want to ask Hillary Clinton? Send your questions here and CNN Chief International Correspondent Christiane Amanpour might ask it during CNN's town hall meeting with Clinton at 5 p.m. ET Tuesday at the Newseum in Washington.

Washington (CNN) - Just how inevitable is a Hillary Clinton victory in 2016?

More than three-quarters of all Americans predict that Clinton will win the Democratic nomination if she runs for the White House, and two-thirds say she is likely to be the next president if she is the party's standard-bearer in 2016, according to a new CNN/ORC International poll.

The poll, released Monday, indicates that 44% say it's very likely the former secretary of state wins her party's presidential nomination if she decides to make another bid for the White House. Another 34% say it's somewhat likely she'll capture the Democratic nomination, and just over one in five say it's not likely she'll win.

Poll: Clinton tops Obama on every issue

More than nine in 10 Democrats, nearly three-quarters of independents and even six in 10 Republicans predict that Clinton will win the nomination if she launches another campaign. In an interview last week, Clinton said she would announce her decision regarding a second White House run sometime early next year.

If she captures her party's nomination, just over three in 10 Americans say it's very likely she'll win the White House in 2016, with 36% saying it's somewhat likely, and 31% saying it's not likely.

How enthusiastic are Democrats about Clinton as nominee?

Eighty-two percent of Democrats, two-thirds of independents, and even 51% of Republicans say that if Clinton becomes her party's nominee, she'll win the presidency.

There's one caveat.

"We've gone down this path before. In 2008, 74% said that she would win the White House if she captured the Democratic nomination, but the then-senator from New York never made it that far," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.

The poll was conducted for CNN by ORC International May 29-June 1, before the rollout of Clinton's new memoir, "Hard Choices." In the survey, 1,003 adults nationwide were questioned by telephone. The poll's overall sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points.

CNN Political Editor Paul Steinhauser contributed to this report.

soundoff (123 Responses)
  1. sol

    Steven Colbert could beat her.

    June 16, 2014 04:59 pm at 4:59 pm |
  2. Bruce

    Love it Joe, because you're right. A breath of fresh air.

    June 16, 2014 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  3. mike

    Isn't this the same thing that was said during 2008? She won the general election that year too right?

    June 16, 2014 05:00 pm at 5:00 pm |
  4. Sniffit

    "The liberals roll out this recycled life-long feminist czar in a pantsuit,"

    Please, more "pant suit" references and use of the word "feminist" as though it is an insult...the 51% just loves it. Trust me...your outreach is going great....please proceed.

    June 16, 2014 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  5. Bill Clinton

    You DO NOT want this evil woman in the White House!

    June 16, 2014 05:02 pm at 5:02 pm |
  6. Bill Clinton

    Polls - almost as trustworthy as newspapers and politicians. Instead, luckily, we will all get to watch Hillary be defeated again and then we all can wave goodbye to Billary and watch happily as they sail off into the sunset for a long deserved ignominious retirement.

    June 16, 2014 05:03 pm at 5:03 pm |
  7. Fraco

    When you talk about the morons in the Republican party, maybe we need to look at the morons in the Democratic Party also who refused to challenge her positions at all. VP Biden not even given a chance. I hope he challenges her. The Liberal Press are the one selling Hillary and hope her over exposure be her ill-doing. The same press promoting her can also do her in. Live by the sword, die by the sword.

    June 16, 2014 05:04 pm at 5:04 pm |
  8. LAURA

    iIf Hillary runs and wins the Democratic nomination which I believe will do, there is no other man or woman more qualified to become POTUS. The Republican party as it stands today, have a majority of people who are against science, against women, against minorities. The whole world laughts at Republican debates when one of the most important questions asked is "Do you believe in evolution? and all of them say "NO" They say that this Country was built with Christian values,and want to convert our beautiful country into a Theocracy. If they can google, they will find that 99% of the founders of the nation were Free Masons who stated Separation of Church and State as one of the main items

    June 16, 2014 05:04 pm at 5:04 pm |
  9. 101 Wild Turkey

    Yep, sure thing, can't miss, no way she can lose.
    That was the conventional wisdom was in 2007..Hillary was going to be the next president.
    Then BO showed up and the Dems dropped her like a rock.

    June 16, 2014 05:04 pm at 5:04 pm |
  10. Paulwisc

    No, Rightster, I don't think Hilary Clinton hunts.

    June 16, 2014 05:05 pm at 5:05 pm |
  11. Hillary Izexi

    We definitely need a candidate with no notable accomplishments and is running on the basis of her last name and gender.

    Hillary 2016: Learn Chinese or Spanish. The United States will be irrelevant.

    June 16, 2014 05:05 pm at 5:05 pm |
  12. ken

    I would rather she win than any members of DO NOTHING CONGRESS

    June 16, 2014 05:06 pm at 5:06 pm |
  13. jack

    just thinking of how funny it would be if Hillary didn't run, and watching everyone scrambling for new rhetoric...

    June 16, 2014 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  14. MattyC1210

    That's because most people in this country are ignorant.

    June 16, 2014 05:08 pm at 5:08 pm |
  15. Concerned Netizen

    No More Clintons, Bushes, Or Obamas... unless we are talking about indictments.

    These guys are gonna fry for their crimes. even if the media won't report their crimes.

    June 16, 2014 05:09 pm at 5:09 pm |
  16. wjm980

    Billary is getting all the press know for her ghost-written book. She's already starting to make mistake after mistake. It really doesn't matter whether she wins or not, as the left will not have the House or the Senate so she'll be little more than a queen.

    June 16, 2014 05:10 pm at 5:10 pm |
  17. aztekman

    Did we not see polls like this 8 years ago?

    June 16, 2014 05:11 pm at 5:11 pm |
  18. ES

    Hillary will win easily. The GOP are eating themselves from the inside out. Grab the Popcorn!

    June 16, 2014 05:11 pm at 5:11 pm |
  19. Liberal...NOT

    Why in the world would Americans want another 4 years of the same thing we've seen for the past 8? It makes no sense. Who in this country would vote for another liberal? I'm not sure where the polls come from but give me a break.

    June 16, 2014 05:11 pm at 5:11 pm |
  20. Cindy

    I would not be surprised if any of the people we talk about now as possible candidates are not the ones in 2016 and I do think Christie is coming back. They have a team of 8 Democrats and 4 Republicans holding trial and they have not found a darn thing yet on him personally. These NJ Dems would love to get him out of the way and they are a really tough bunch and still they have nothing.

    June 16, 2014 05:12 pm at 5:12 pm |
  21. KennyEee

    If she wins it was a set up, just like this last one!!!!

    June 16, 2014 05:13 pm at 5:13 pm |
  22. carlos

    I think she will win, but only because we have a LOT of clueless voters that don't know what is good for the country and are easily swayed by the media and mostly vote as a part of some kind of popularity contest, like American idol. Add an IQ threshold or minimum education for voting and I think the outcome would be quite different from what we have seen over the last few decades.

    June 16, 2014 05:14 pm at 5:14 pm |
  23. Fraco

    I hope VP Biden runs. Hillary will lose if she becomes the Democratic nominee. This is the same woman who was broke with multiple mansion mortgages. The Republicans will revisit her past and her husbands all the way. That is politics and the liberal press will not be able to hang on for long before they turn on her.

    June 16, 2014 05:15 pm at 5:15 pm |
  24. Dubrats

    If true...so sad for this country.

    June 16, 2014 05:15 pm at 5:15 pm |
  25. Lynda/Minnesota

    "Wow! after such a wonderful Obama presidency and you dems think Hillary is going to win. I cannot believe anyone could stand another 4-8 years of dem rule."

    To be fair, the poll does suggest a majority of Republicans think so as well.

    "Eighty-two percent of Democrats, two-thirds of independents, and even 51% of Republicans say that if Clinton becomes her party's nominee, she'll win the presidency."

    June 16, 2014 05:15 pm at 5:15 pm |
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